Constructing An Alternative Reality This has been gradually developing for about the last quarter of a century or so. While there was some of this going on before, it took off after the Newt Gingrich-led GOP took over Congress in the 94 election and Rush Limbaugh began his radio show. Not long after Fox News […]
I am often critical of libertarian economist Donald Boudreaux. This morning, I sent him an email criticizing a post of his in which he cited a study claiming that pcr tests for covid have a false positive rate of 80% or more. I pointed out that this is obvious nonsense, since overall test positivity rates, […]
by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for November 30 – December 4 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. There is more evidence of weakening of the coincident data, probably as the result of the completely out of control pandemic. Some of that is probably due to new restrictions, some to […]
November jobs report: the “least positive” report since April HEADLINES: Leading employment indicators of a slowdown or recession I am still highlighting these because of their leading nature for the economy overall. These were generally positive:
Fact: Contrary to what President Trump claims, the Postal Service can’t solve its financial problems by raising “the price of a package by approximately four times.” Steve Hutkins at Save The Post Office discusses the financial issues facing the United States Postal Service and why the Postal Regulatory Commission new plans to increase prices may […]
Yellen And Akerlof Or Akerlof and Yellen? I have already posted about the nomination of Janet Yellen to be Treasury Secretary, a historic first and most duly deserved. She is great and totally appropriate, and I have already bloviated at length on that. I am now going to discuss a more obscure and odd matter, […]
by New Deal democrat First look at the 2021 economy: housing As I’ve pointed out for years, housing is a long leading indicator. It can give us a decent read on the direction of the overall economy 12 to 18 months out. So the strength in the housing market in the past 6 months has […]
November data starts out strong with a very positive ISM manufacturing index The first November data point, the ISM manufacturing index, was reported this morning, and while it declined from last month, it remained very strongly positive. The overall index declined from 59.3 to 57.5, and the more forward-looking new orders index declined from 67.9 […]
by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for November 23 – 27 at Seeking Alpha A little later than usual, my Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. While there has been no big deterioration, there are further slight signs that the out of control pandemic is taking a toll on the recovery that has been […]
October personal income declines, but still well above pre-pandemic peak; increased likelihood of negative pandemic reversal in jobless claims Before I turn to this week’s report on jobless claims, a brief word first about October’s personal income and spending. Although personal income declined in October compared with September, more importantly depending on how you measure […]