Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

November JOLTS report consistent with a weak, but sideways rather than negative, trend in the labor market

– by New Deal democrat Yesterday’s JOLTS report for November was not stale inasmuch as it was at best delayed by a week or two. But nevertheless, since it was for November it remains somewhat old news that can only help to confirm other data we have already received.  Last month I concluded that the […]

Jobless claims start the year where they left off: very low firing, problematic hiring possibly easing

 – by New Deal democrat Let’s take our weekly look at jobless claims, which are the best up-to-the-moment measure of the labor market. Initial claims rose 8,000 to 208,000, while the four week moving average declined -7,250 to 211,750. With the typical one week delay, continuing claims rose 56,000 to 1.914 million: Number of Initial […]

ISM services report for December powerful evidence that the services providing sector of the US economy remains in solid expansion

 – by New Deal democrat As I indicated yesterday and earlier today, we got some stale data on factory orders this morning, as well as a JOLTS report for November. I’ll take a look at those tomorrow. In the meantime, the big news of the morning has to be the very good ISM services report for […]

In December, truck sales tanked while car sales and private jobs (per ADP) increased

 – by New Deal democrat I will write about the biggest economic release of the day, the ISM services report for December, later. In the meantime, here are two other important data releases for December, one from a private source (ADP), and the other from the BEA’s GDP updates. As an initial matter, I don’t […]

“Difficult issues await Ukraine peace talks team”

It may be such that the United States may abandon Ukraine to the Russians just to get out of the situation of providing it weaponry. Ukraine is in a tough position with having to work with a US president who more likely than not favors Russia over them. Once again, the United States may just […]

Capturing Venezuela . . . An Editorial

Or maybe it is Venezuela capturing the United States? “Plot twist: Kidnapping a president” The one-handed economist So, Trump and his fellow-geniuses appear to think they’ve “hacked” the dilemma of diplomacy: If you’re annoyed with the actions of a sovereign country, then just kidnap their leader and claim that you can now run the country. […]

Real wages and consumer spending have been crucial positives; here is the most updated look

 – New Deal democrat We are still suffering the aftereffects of the government shutdown, with no data today, but a helping of mainly stale government data tomorrow and Friday. Tomorrow we get up to date private data from the ISM for services, and from ADP for private employment, along with manufacturers’ orders for October. On Friday […]

About that Venezuelan oil

There’s been a lot of crowing by Trump about how he’s seizing Venezuelan oil to hand it to American oil companies and skim profits for the United States. What oil, and how much? “According to figures widely cited throughout the media and the oil industry itself, Venezuela is sitting on around 300 billion barrels’ worth […]

December ISM manufacturing report: continued contraction, continued stagflation, poor employment

 – by New Deal democrat We are still suffering the data aftereffects of the government shutdown. Normally we begin each month with reports on both construction spending as well as manufacturing. But the construction report even now has only been updated through August, and won’t be updated for September and October until January 21. And […]