Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Immigrants are Using Less Welfare than US Citizens

In that respect, the title is correct. Immigrants whether legal or not do not use more welfare than U.S. citizens. That they do use welfare benefits can be an issue to many. However, I believe we should look more at the economic impact immigrants have on the economy whether they are legal or not. As […]

Annoyed with the Actions of a Sovereign Country?

then just kidnap their leader . . . Economist David Zetland presenting a way to solve economic and political problematic issues . . . kidnap the country’s president. David Zetland The one-handed economist Plot: Twist: Kidnapping a president So Trump and his fellow-geniuses appear to think they’ve “hacked” the dilemma of diplomacy: If you’re annoyed […]

More clarity in jobless claims: both post-pandemic seasonality and regime change at work

 – by New Deal democrat As we move further into the calendar year, we are getting more clarity on what has been happening with jobless claims. As a reminder, I look at these because historically they have been a good short leading indicator for the unemployment rate and more broadly for the economy as a whole. […]

Blocking Flu Shots

Started at the end rather than the beginning . . . Blocking Flu shots does not make much sense as Flu Shots are nothing new. The big issue is whether they chose the right vaccine for what will happen each year. “The Journal notes Moderna was one of nine companies to have received a surprise […]

Per Prof. Edward Leamer’s forecasting method, a yellow flag “Recession Watch” is warranted

 – by New Deal democrat In a landmark paper almost 20 years ago, UCLA Prof. Edward Leamer wrote that “Housing IS the Business Cycle.” In that paper he concluded: In the years before recessions . . . consumers contribute a total of 65% of the leading weakness. In contrast, business spending contributes only 10%…. The temporal […]

Trump Tariffs, Who Pays?

Warning: Today’s Post Will be even Wonkier Than Usual . . . Until recently the question of who pays tariffs (Paul Krugman) wasn’t controversial among economists. The overwhelming consensus was that under normal circumstances tariffs — taxes on imported goods — are passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices. There are caveats […]

Repeat existing home prices continue to increase at a snail’s pace, but still outstrip post-pandemic wage growth

 – by New Deal democrat In the past month, all of the various home price indexes have confirmed abating inflation in the shelter sector. This morning the FHFA and Case Shiller house price indexes were updated through December. Last week we got price information for new houses, and earlier in the month for existing homes. In this […]

A Circular Economy

Finally rested and can comment on Lloyd’s commentary. Definitely something the user of aluminum in products should read. Not all aluminum product are the same. Even so, it does offer a better use material in many instances. Is the aluminum can the key to a circular economy? Lloyd Alter Carbon Upfront! Is the aluminum can […]

Economic Numbers Portraying the United States Economy

 The State of the Union in Numbers. A Quick and Short Review In 2025, the economy expanded as GDP increased, inflation decreased slightly, and the size of imports and exports shifted. These and other measures provide a snapshot of economic activity, prices, and the labor market heading into 2026. How was the economy doing? In 2025, […]

Don’t make deals with terrorists

This is why nations shouldn’t pay ransom. “The president reacted to the Supreme Court’s judgment by initially announcing a new universal 10% levy, using a different legal framework for the latest tariffs, but then increased the global tariff rate to 15% — the legal maximum which can be in place for 150 days before congressional […]