Look, here’s the thing about money: it isn’t real. It’s all about belief and trust. I’ve been invested in equities and money markets for over 40 years. I’ve ridden the ups and downs. Money only means what people say it means, neither more nor less. Alfred North Whitehead coined the “fallacy of misplaced concreteness.” He […]

 – by New Deal democrat New home sales were updated for the second time since the shutdown, with data only through October – i.e., stale. The silver lining is that this is a long leading indicator, so it remains of value. Normally I save inventory for last, but in view of the importance of new […]

 – by New Deal democrat We finally got our first “regular” CPI report since September this morning. Caution is still warranted, however, because the October-November kludge is still present in the base from which December’s monthly change was calculated. But the bottom line is that the series’ all reverted to their pre-shutdown trend, with the […]

If you’ve noticed you are paying more these days for milk and oranges, Tuesday’s inflation report is unlikely to surprise you. The report shows U.S. inflation cooling slightly in December. But it also demonstrates how the price pressures consumers actually notice with regard to food, energy, commodities other than the former, and services other than services. You have probably […]

 – by New Deal democrat On Friday housing permits, starts, and units under construction were finally reported for the first time in four months, since September’s report for August. The bad news is that the report only updated through October, so we are still two months behind. The very qualified good news is that, since […]

A recent piece in the Wall Street Journal . . . Erica York “Do Tariffs Cause Inflation? New Studies Offer Surprising Answer?” The article highlights two economic papers that have found tariffs usually have not led to higher inflation (or only slight pickups), likely because tariffs tend to hurt the economy and reduce demand. If you read my November newsletter, you would not be surprised by those […]

A view of the Greenland controversy as seen through the eyes of another country, reported by the Bangkok Post, Thailand. As I read this news article, the Bangkok Post is in a presentation mode and not taking a position. Such could be the result of Thailand’s relationship with the United States. A viewpoint from outside […]

This is kind of stupid. It appears the National Park system is going to charge noncitizen tourists or customers a much higher fee to enter US National Parks. Now why would this be so ignorant? When you think about it, many of these parks are in areas which require some degree of travel. This means […]

According to press reports, the Trump Administration is considering military attacks on Iran. This act of war, like all wars, is likely to have unintended consequences. The myth is that such foreign attacks free domestic opposition to topple the regime (see, e.g., the Bay of Pigs). More often, they only serve to rally citizen support […]

 – by New Deal democrat [Note: Housing permits, starts, and units under construction were also updated this morning for September and October. I will post my remarks on this report on Monday; but in summary I can say it remained recessionary, with some possible “green shoots” that may indicate a bottom.] This morning’s jobs report for […]