by New Deal democrat The US economy is primed for takeoff in 2021 The first vaccine against COVID-19 began to be distributed today. At last there is light at the end of the tunnel. The pandemic has been dictating the state of the economy ever since it hit. But for the last several months and […]
The Fiscal Stimulus Gridlock The best can be said about a possible fiscal stimulus in the face of a renewed Covid-19 surge that is dragging the economy down as many areas shut down in various degrees is that at least a few hours ago the US Senate approved a one week continuing budget resolution to […]
Then and Now — Once the birthright of lords and kings, the association of wealth with power, is, of late, more often than not, the prerogative of the very wealthy; theirs as a right derived under the aegis of capitalism, and, one defended, it seems — under the aegis of the Constitution. For a long […]
by New Deal Democrat Weekly Indicators for December 7 – 11 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Here’s the link: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4394374-weekly-high-frequency-indicators-weakness-spreads-still-no-fundamental-change-in-outlook With the big increase in jobless claims, as well as a deteriorating situation for restaurant dining, weakness has spread further among the indicators – but the forecast, both […]
November inflation tame again, with the economy weak, but real wage gains strong Consumer prices rose 0.2% in November on a seasonally adjusted basis, but declined -0.1% unadjusted: As shown in the above graph, a November decline in prices is typical. This year’s decline was less than either of the past two years.On a YoY […]
JOLTS report for October: similar to previous 2 recoveries, but a decline in actual hiring may be a warning This morning’s JOLTS report for October showed a jobs market recovery that, for one month at least, paused. Openings and quits were up (good), but layoffs and discharges were also up (bad) while hires were down […]
Jobless claims rise: a break in the trend? This week’s new and continuing jobless claims all rose off of last week’s pandemic lows, but while I suspect the downward trend has broken, I don’t think we can say so decisively yet. On an unadjusted basis, new jobless claims rose by 228,982 to 947,504. Seasonally adjusted […]
Noah Smith wrote a very interesting post on how macroeconomists are behaving very differently in 2020 than in 2008-9 : The new macro: “Give people money” . He notes two differences : first there is little discussing of theory or of the models used in most peer reviewed articles, second there is (as far as […]
Four measures of labor market losses in the pandemic Below is a graph of 4 ways of measuring the downturn in the labor market due to the pandemic: 1. Payrolls (blue) – this is the headline jobs number from the establishment survey2. Civilian employment (green) – this is the equivalent number from the household survey.3. […]
Constructing An Alternative Reality This has been gradually developing for about the last quarter of a century or so. While there was some of this going on before, it took off after the Newt Gingrich-led GOP took over Congress in the 94 election and Rush Limbaugh began his radio show. Not long after Fox News […]