Predictions for economic growth, stock market, inflation, interest rates most optimistic in past seven years. Then too, Biden left a better economy than what he inherited from Trump. It was on the verge of a pandemic. Trump still denies today it was serious enough to keep people home. In 2020, Republicans’ top concern was the […]
The Trump administration just slashed NIH grants. I think this terrible policy shift is entirely constitutional and legal. I think it is also a severe (entirely deliberate) blow to US Universities and a possibly fatal blow to biomedical research institutions. The new policy limits funds for overhead to 15% of the amount directly granted to […]
– by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. Mainly more of the same ; the majority of short leading and coincident indicators are positive, while the long leading background is ever so slowly improving. As usual, clicking over and reading will reward you with knowing the state of the economy […]
The latter part of New Deal’s report on January 2025 Jobs portends of things to come in the economic reporting of Employment and Unemployment statistics. It is thought the accuracy of the reporting “may” change going forward. We hope not. It is a possibility with this administration. If unreported, it is taken as never happening. […]
January jobs report: annual revisions clear up some big discrepancies, but monthly numbers are close to pre-recessionary – by New Deal democrat My theme for the past several years as to employment has been “deceleration,” as in a gradual cooldown from white hot to red hot to hot to warm. But at some point past […]
– by New Deal democrat Let’s take our typically weekly look at jobless claims. I do this because there are a very good and timely short leading indicator for the labor market. Initial claims rose 11,000 to 219,000. The four week moving average rose 4,000 to 216,750. With the typical one week delay, continued claims […]
When overwhelming becomes an understatement. When the diversion to conceal a coup could bring down the United States of America. Except for us, the world has come to understand that the United States of Yore no longer exists. That we are now simply Trump and who in the hell would be dumb enough to trust […]
– by New Deal democrat As per usual, my focus in reporting on GDP is not the headline number, but the aspects which serve as leading indicators for the economy in the next few quarters. But to get it out of the way, real GDP increased at a 2.3% rate in the last quarter of […]
Maybe you have seen Mr. Mom? There was a scene in there where Howard Humphries (President?) is doing a commercial for their product Schooner Tuna. The tuna with a heart. So, Humphries decreases the price during bad economic times. All of us here at Schooner Tuna sympathize with all of you hit so hard by […]
– by New Deal democrat Because that services are about 75% of the economy, even if goods production is contracting, since the turn of the MIllennium that has not necessarily meant a recession is in the offing. The economically weighted average to the ISM services and manufacturing indexes has been much more accurate since then. […]