Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

My Big Picture nowcast and forecast at mid-year 2026 (it may surprise you!)

 – by New Deal democrat Earlier this week I promised an updated Big Picture forecast and nowcast for the US economy, plus a note about how broad or narrow was the participation.  Most commentators either have a financial or ideological agenda – getting you to buy their stock recommendations, or selling you on DOOOM, cherry […]

Leadership and Justice that Looks the Other Way and Ignores Racism

As I explained multiple times. Turn out was less in 2024 that in 2020. 3 million people did not vote, The same numeric of ~ three million who voted for others did similar in 2024 and it had a larger impact. Turn out was less in 2024 by percentage of eligible voters 59.7% as compared […]

Starting off the second half of 2026 (mainly) positive

– by New Deal democrat [Special programming note: Today we begin the second half of the year. On Friday there will be no data due to the federal holiday. Since I haven’t updated my overall nowcast and forecast for the economy, as well as how average Americans are doing economically, I plan to do so then. […]

Increasing Corporate Funding and Spending for Candidates Leading up to the 2026 Elections

Introduction: Nearly one third of all corporate political spending on elections since the 2010 Citizens United decision has occurred in the current election cycle. This is months before the general election, a new report from Public Citizen. I suspect this is more for Republicans then Democrats. “‘A Disaster for Democracy’: Report Shows Surging Corporate Spending in 2026 Elections,” Common Dreams, […]

Latest TACO?

Trump refused to sign a housing bill passed by bipartisan veto-proof majorities. But if he refuses to sign it and refuses to veto it, it becomes law. “Speaker Mike Johnson says the landmark housing affordability package Congress passed earlier this month will become law — and that Republicans won’t have to take an uncomfortable vote […]

Assessing a SCOTUS Decision

Robert is addressing why the latest SCOTUS decision is in deliberate error when reviewing what the FTC is mandated to do by law. Can SCOTUS deliberately disregard the will of Congress and install its own hacks in independent regulatory agencies (with the odd exception of the Federal Reserve Board)? Some might call this, legislating from […]

Re-examining the long leading indicators: the effects of fiscal and commodity price shocks

– by New Deal democrat Several weeks ago, I wrote that “after 20 years, I think it’s time to examine whether the broad range of long leading indicators hold up.” This was primarily because, while when they have been positive the economy has followed suit 12 to 24 months later, several times they have been […]