It is very likely that the candidate who wins Pennsylvania will become president. A problem is that the election officials are not allowed to look at absentee ballots before November 3rd. It is likely that Trump will lead the in person vote and try to declare victory. However, the party registration of absentee voters is […]
A brief history of the Judiciary under Republics; the radical departure of the US Constitution, and how to reform it now I’ll have a note up, probably at Seeking Alpha tomorrow, on new home sales, which get reported later this morning. In the meantime, especially with the likely confirmation of the 6th movement conservative Justice […]
No Bumper Crop in 2020 We took a trip this weekend, driving 180 miles each way on I-5 through Oregon and Washington State. We kept our eyes peeled for bumper stickers relating to the upcoming election but counted only three for Trump and an amazing zero for Biden. I’ve never seen anything like this before […]
From the NYT editorial board: Of all the things President Trump has destroyed, the Republican Party is among the most dismaying. “Destroyed” is perhaps too simplistic, though. It would be more precise to say that Mr. Trump accelerated his party’s demise, exposing the rot that has been eating at its core for decades and leaving […]
Lauren Martinchek at Medium magazine has a brief article suggesting there is another reason why trump chose Amy to be the next SCOTUS Justice and why Republicans are in such a hurry to nominate her. It is an alarmist viewpoint; however, it does have a foundation to it and has merit for her to claim it. […]
“I don’t know about the two gentlemen you mentioned.” Rudy Giuliani and Steve Bannon join a long list of people Donald Trump doesn’t know about. Igor Fruman and Lev Parnas “I don’t know those gentleman. Now, it’s possible I have a picture with them because I have a picture with everybody. I don’t know them, […]
The Period Of Short Term Memory The election is two weeks from today. When I took an intro psych course over half a century ago, I was taught in it that two weeks is the period of short term memory, the period in which we remember events with special salience. I do not know if […]
Last I heard (6:52 PM EST October 10 2020) Donald Trump wants to sign a huge new stimulus bill. I don’t try to read his mind, but I think he is sincere. It is the only way he can win re-election. On the other hand, Mtich McConnell does not want the Senate to pass a […]
The 2020 election nowcast: Biden widens national lead; Senate races likely to follow Presidential result in each State Here is my weekly update on the 2020 elections, based on State rather than national polling in the past 30 days, since that directly reflects what is likely to happen in the Electoral College.At only 16 days […]
Two noteworthy tweets It’s a slow economic news week. Housing starts and permits are reported tomorrow, and jobless claims and existing home sales on Thursday. I’ll update the Coronavirus Dashboard Wednesday. So for today, two nuggets. 1. Nate Silver discovers behavioral psychology: This has been my paradigm for months. Panic breeds compliance with mask-wearing and […]