The 2020 Presidential and Senate races: a postmortem Way back in June I started writing nowcasts for the 2020 elections. Here’s what my very first map looked like: And here’s what the last one looked like: When I pushed the “toss-ups”, by lowering the threshold from 3% to 1%, NC, GA, and FL also became “lean […]
Visiting Charlottesville On The Day Biden-Harris Declared Victors Over Trump-Pence Really, it was not planned with politics in mind. In Harrisonburg, VA we are an hour drive from Charlottesville, VA, and we have in the past maybe about 2 times every 3 months or so go over there to shop, eat, hang out, etc. I […]
Steve Hutkins of Save the Post Office has been live blogging and providing updates to the 12 federal district court cases filed. In the November 6, 2020 Update Steve discusses the delivery updates being filed in court and which are being used by some news outlets to show the USPS has been delivering ballots late […]
Whining Pundits As I write this the outcome of the presidential election remains uncertain, although the trends seem to be heading steadily in Biden’s favor and it seems very unlikely he will lose, but the hanging on of this is beginning to get to many of us. Most other races have been decided, although some […]
Steve Hutkins on-line live blogging at Save the Post Office has been updating the progress of the “Lawsuits against DeJoy, USPS & Trump with relation to mail delays and election mail. This is the sweep ordered by the court for the USPS to perform to discover and report via the “sweep of facilities” how many […]
Slow pace of improvement in jobless claims continues This week’s new jobless claims were essentially unchanged (but at their pandemic low), while continued claims continued their decline, also to a new pandemic low. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, new jobless claims declined by only 543 to 738,166, just above October 3’s revised pandemic low of […]
Warning! First person ahead. I don’t usually talk about myself, don’t even like to talk about people, but this a story that I want to tell and don’t know how to otherwise do so. So, your forbearance, please. Those of you who have been around as long as I, have probably witnessed personnel changes that […]
The Morning After Last night was truly a dark night of the soul. The rule of law in an American Republic simply will not withstand the re-election of jobless claims together with a continuing GOP majority in the Senate. Not to mention the prospect of continuing to shelter in place for perhaps years as the […]
Biden Narrowly Leads In Prairie Du Chien, Wisconsin Several months ago I forecast that “He who wins Prairie du Chien wins the White House.” I also argued more generally that SW Wisconsin would determine Wisconsin. As of right now Trump is leading by about 2% in Wisconsin, and he seems to be ahead in most […]
Two Questions about the Election I am about to turn in and let the vote-counting continue without me. It will be a troubled sleep since the election was mostly a disaster. (Universal preschool won in Oregon, and if everywhere were like here I would be happier.) Meanwhile two questions: 1. What went wrong with the […]