The 2020 Presidential and Senate nowcast: not a good week for Biden Here is my weekly update on the 2020 elections, based on State rather than national polling in the past 30 days, since that directly reflects what is likely to happen in the Electoral College. Remember that polls are really only nowcasts, not […]
A Beady-Eyed Religious Fanatic For The Supreme Court Others may not see what I see when I look at a full-face photo of Amy Conet Barrett, but I see someone who looks like a fanatic to me, although that may be me reading in what I have heard of her views on things, she being […]
The real story revealed by the New York Times Trump tax returns bombshell is not that Donald Trump paid no taxes in 10 out of 15 years or that he paid $750 in 2016 and 2017. The real story is that he doesn’t have net income to service his debt. There is nothing inherently illegal […]
Prof. Steve Hutkins at Save the Post Office The plaintiffs in Jones have reached an agreement with the Postal Service that settles the case for now. The outline of the agreement is similar to the commitments in the Sept. 24 Standup Talk on Election Mail, but there are some more specific details. The agreement states the following (the rest is […]
I stumbled across this article at Electoral-Vote .com. They have a chart showing the control of the Secretary of States, Legislatures and Executive offices. They combine that with the current polling in each state and electoral votes. Their conclusion, more than hell would have to freeze over for Trump and the Atlantic’s article warning of […]
In the 19th century, employers stove off employee demands by bringing in immigrants willing to work under existing conditions. In the 20th Century, consequent the Great Depression, prohibition of child labor, immigration reform, … it was no longer so easy for employers to ignore workers demands. Unions took root and membership grew and so did […]
In a face off with Republican candidate Paul Junge, Congresswoman Slotkin lets Paul Junge know Republicans must have a healthcare plan as they don’t. In this clip she gives her personal story about her mom having cancer and being unable to get insurance at a reasonable cost or not at all. There are many more […]
I would like to propose a set of questions for the Amy Coney Barrett confirmation hearings. I would ask about her interview with Donald Trump. 1) in the interview, did the president talk about himself at all ? Both answers are costly. We all know he did (he always does) so to answer no is […]
Polls vs Polls plus. Rule number 1 of forecasting is do not quarrel with fivethirtyeight.com Rule number 538 is not ever. So here I go. I am going to start with the fivethirtyeight Senate forecast(s). (s) because there are three and an “pick a model” icon to toggle them. I like the “lite” just polls […]
Nine Supreme Court vacancies in place during election years in SCOTUS’s post – Civil War era. It is simple, Republicans as led by McConnell lied to the American people. McConnell would call out to Democrats stating “the American voters” want truthful politicians. Has McConnell been truthful to “the American People?” 2016: McConnell’s Lies: “I believe the overwhelming […]