Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Brad DeLong hops aboard the “Employers have a Taboo against raising Wages” bandwagon

Brad DeLong hops aboard the “Employers have a Taboo against raising Wages” bandwagon For Labor Day Prof. Brad DeLong posted a talk on the implications (or not) of the US being near “full employment.” The arguments on a few of the pages will be familiar to readers of this blog:

Trump’s base: not the white working class, but white evangelicals — all men and lesser-educated women — who believe the ends justify the means

Trump’s base: not the white working class, but white evangelicals — all men and lesser-educated women — who believe the ends justify the means Via Digby: __________________ 1. Trump has always been unpopular with college-educated voters [A] Pew Research assessment … [using a] validated voter survey (they matched voter file with the survey respondents) showed white women narrowly preferring […]

Comments on personal consumption expenditures: the September anomaly and the Fed’s 2% inflation ceiliing

Comments on personal consumption expenditures: the September anomaly and the Fed’s 2% inflation ceiliing Let me make a few comments on yesterday’s (Aug. 30) report on personal income and spending. Well, actually, just the spending part for now. First, there is a long-time relationship going back 60 years in the data whereby the YoY% growth […]

Corporate profits after taxes set a new record. But the Fed is worried about wages

Corporate profits after taxes set a new record. But the Fed is worried about wages Yesterday  (Aug. 29) in the Q2 GDP update corporate profits were reported for the first time. Since corporate profits are one of four long leading indicators identified by Prof. Geoffrey Moore, I have updated my look at them at Seeking Alpha. […]

House prices continue to rise, exacerbating unaffordability

House prices continue to rise, exacerbating unaffordability Now that we have both the Case Shiller and FHFA house price reports for June, let’s take a look at how they fit in to the overall market, and in particular on housing affordability. To begin with, let me repeat the general formula for the housing market: interest […]

What the compressed yield curve means for employment

What the compressed yield curve means for employment Aside from the threat of a recession down the road, is there cause for concern by economic Progressives in the fact that the yield curve has tightened (i.e., the difference in interest rates between long and short term bonds has become very small)? In a word, Yes. […]

A new risk at the Fed: Donald Trump’s power to fire Fed Governors

A new risk at the Fed: Donald Trump’s power to fire Fed Governors Calling it “breaking with decades of presidential convention,” the New York Times reported last week on Donald Trump’s open criticism of recent Federal Reserve rate hikes. quoting him as telling donors at a  fund-raiser in the Hamptons: that he had expected Mr. Powell to […]

Is the rental vacancy rate a leading signal for the housing market?

Is the rental vacancy rate a leading signal for the housing market? Here is something I noticed while putting together my piece yesterday on the housing market. Three of the series — new home sales, existing home sales, and single family starts — all peaked last November: That made me go back and think about […]