February jobs report: the first sign of the economic slowdown spreading to jobs? HEADLINES: +20,000 jobs added U3 unemployment rate -0.2% from 4.0% to 3.8% U6 underemployment rate -0.8% from 8.1% to 7.3% (NEW 20 YEAR LOW) Here are the headlines on wages and the broader measures of underemployment: Wages and participation rates Not in […]
This Friday, watch out for an outright decline in temporary employment Almost a month ago I flagged the decelerating staffing index, and showed how it corresponded with the leading sector of temporary jobs in the monthly jobs report: the Staffing Index isn’t seasonally adjusted, [so] you really have to compare each on a YoY basis. And […]
Two more leading sectors to watch for in tomorrow’s jobs report Yesterday I updated my look at temporary jobs, a known leading indicator for jobs overall. Today I want to look at two more leading sectors: manufacturing and construction. Unlike temporary jobs, I’m not looking for a possible decline. Rather, I am looking for a […]
Residential construction declines in December, but looks to be bottoming Residential construction spending lags sales, permits, and starts. But it still leads the economy overall, and it is a much smoother data series, with little noise. It is almost all signal, and so it is an important confirmation of the more leading data. In December, […]
December housing permits and starts mixed, support slowdown scenario This morning we finally got December housing permits and starts. Remember that starts are more volatile than permits, and single family permits are the least volatile of all. Here’s what the overall data looks like: While starts and completions laid an egg, permits actually went up […]
Q4 GDP: mixed signals for the future (UPDATED with graphs) I didn’t post anything yesterday, so I’ll make up for it with two posts today.This morning we finally got the very delayed first look at Q4 GDP. As per my usual practice, I am less interested in what happened in the rear view mirror, which […]
Manufacturing holds on in February The theme for most reports remains that the government shutdown in December and January, plus a 30 year record cold snap for a week in January, put a real dent in the economy. That certainly was the message of December personal spending and December and January personal spending this morning. […]
December housing permits and starts mixed, support slowdown scenario This morning we finally got December housing permits and starts. Remember that starts are more volatile than permits, and single family permits are the least volatile of all. Here’s what the overall data looks like: While starts and completions laid an egg, permits actually went up […]
100 years of industrial production This is a post that can literally be written only once in 100 years! Because as of last Friday, it has been exactly 100 years since the first publication of industrial production by the Fed in January 1919. So this is a good time to take a sweeping historical look […]
Wages continued to improve through January One item I didn’t get around to in the last couple of weeks is how wages performed as of January’s jobs report. And the basic answer is: pretty good! The first graph below shows real, inflation adjusted average wage gains for non-managerial workers measured YoY: As of January they […]