Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Is this Short Covering, or Are the Suckers Flooding the Market?

Via ElNuevoDia at LG&M, “Gamblers are now betting that Kavanaugh will not be confirmed.” The market in question, at PredictIt, seems rather straightforward. Note, though, that the contract only opened five days ago (18 September) and traded consistently in the 60-70% range through yesterday (22 Sep), closing at 61% and only reaching as low as […]

Ten Years Have Got Behind You

It has been almost ten years since: Bear Stearns folded Lehmann collapsed of its own free will I posted on this blog All of the above Those who guessed “c” or “d” are optimists. Those who are expecting a long series of posts dwelling on the correct answer of “b” (with some references to “a” […]

Minimum Wage Effects with Non-Living Wages

I’m teaching “Economics for Non-Economists” this semester. This is an interesting experiment, and is strongly testing my belief that you can teach economics without mathematics so long as people understand graphs and tables. (It appears that people primarily learn how to read graphs and tables in mathematics-related courses. Did everyone except me know this?) Since […]

Exploring Rifles for Sale

In the digital age, the accessibility of goods and services has extended to include firearms, leading to a growing market for rifles available for purchase online. While this avenue provides convenience for enthusiasts and sportsmen, it’s essential to approach online firearm purchases with a thorough understanding of regulations, safety measures, and responsible ownership. Legality and […]

Any Economist Who Talks about Rational Investment is Full of Shit, Hoosier Edition

CPAC had a gathering of Republican Governors today. As Jennifer Hayden (@Scout_Finch) on Twitter noted, the Brownback/Walker/etc. panel was called “How to ruin your state’s economy with one easy tax cut.” So naturally my thoughts shifted to the one way blowing up your state’s economy could be ameliorated: if some unearned windfall occurred. Could a […]

When to Stop Reading a “Non-Fiction” Article

(cross-posted from Skippy the Bush Kangaroo) Mark Thoma sends us to Benjamin M. Friedman. Given that imprimatur, one expects precise analysis. (Mark, after all, is an econometrician by trade.) So it was surprising to stop reading so early. Specifically, I gave up on this cretinous piece of garbage at: especially during the president’s first year […]

Tim Duy Explictly Declares Reality is Real

And confirms that his own position: is the same as that of Brad DeLong (et cetera.) and those of us who try paying bills [T]he [Federal Funds Interest Rate target] debate has shifted in the opposite direction as market participants weigh the possibility of a rate cut. The Fed is probably not there yet, but […]