Is this Short Covering, or Are the Suckers Flooding the Market?
Via ElNuevoDia at LG&M, “Gamblers are now betting that Kavanaugh will not be confirmed.”
The market in question, at PredictIt, seems rather straightforward. Note, though, that the contract only opened five days ago (18 September) and traded consistently in the 60-70% range through yesterday (22 Sep), closing at 61% and only reaching as low as 55%.
In the past two hours, more than 20,000 transactions has occurred, which is greater than the volume on any previous day, with no trade higher than 60, and none in the past hour above 42. (It is 9:13 EDT as I write this.) The 24-hour graphic is impressive in its consistency:
until it’s not.
The open question is whether the buyers at the lower level are the same people who were selling in the 60s and 70s (the ratio of Trades to Shares is roughly 2:1; some of the previous activity was clearly coverage) locking in a profit against new, relatively low-information buyers, or if the route is on.
It appears the opportunity for buying at the bottom has passed; it remains to be seen if the market will stabilize at low levels or recover as time passes without new information and/or the termination of the contract.
The latest news about the sexual victim of sexual abuse explains this drop. Kavanaugh’s nomination is dead.
The second woman provides independent evidence that there is a problem with his sexual behavior.
It also raises questions about his honesty.
He also had a drinking problem and I can believe he was so drunk that he really does not remember any of times he misbehaved.
When I was about that age ( 19) I had an apartment on the south side of Orlando. One morning I went out to get my car and discovered it was parked across the street. Why, I wondered and started thinking about it.
The last thing I remembered about the previous evening was being in some dive just north of Daytona Beach. So I had left there, drove down old A1A through Daytona Beach, and took the highway to Orlando — in those pre-Disney days a narrow two lane road through the country — and trough down-town Orlando and back to my apartment. But to this day I do not remember anything about that trip. So I can believe a drunk teenager would not remember what he did.
Go over to Brad DeLong’s place and check out the comments. Kavanaugh belonged to a disgusting fraternity known as DKE and it seems Yale female alum are speaking out. Kavanaugh also belonged to a society that called itself Tits and Clits.
PGL:
Brad’s commentary is a pretty serious indictment of Kavanaugh’s character. Meanwhile our Dick**** in chief is boasting about a superficial Korean trade deal.
pgl’s optimism is not shared by Amanda Marcotte, Jonathan Freedland in The Guardian, or me.
The offer side for “Yes” remains at 43, while “No” is improbably offered at 60 (with no takers).
The POTUS is pleased with his pick. The committee vote will occur tomorrow and the Senate will vote this weekend, probably.
The only questions remaining are whether or not Pence will break a tie (I’m thinking no) and how many Dems will vote to confirm once it’s clear it’s in the bag (I’m inclined to think at least 3-6… Tester, Manchin, and probably at least one more). 11 Democrats voted to confirm Clarence Thomas.
Hint: A majority of the US Senate represents 18% of the population. A lot of that 18% loves them some faux fox cable shouting.
AS:
That is a so-what fact. The Senate was created to represent by state and not by population. The House was created to offset the Senate and represent by population which it does not do as intended because of the limit to the numbers of congressional representatives.
Sure sure. It’s a so what for anybody who’s fine with an anti democratic process that generates unreviewable decisions by lifetime appointment.
I’m not on that list.
AS:
Your interpretation of what the Senate does is a false one. It is not an undemocratic process as determined by the founding fathers. The makeup of the Senate is in the constitution the same as the House. Every state gets two Senators and every state gets a number of representatives as determined by population. This was the equalizer so states with large populations could not impress their beliefs upon states with less population. What has skewed the representation is the freezing of the House at 435 and the subsequent reapportionment act.
There was never supposed to be the filibuster allowing a minority to control the Senate, or the blue slip, or the Hastert rule in the House. Indeed if Aaron Burr had not suggested the “previous question” motion was no longer needed as Senators were gentlemen, the filibuster would have never come to be the weapon it is today.
The anti-democratic process is when people do not vote which was largely responsible for Trump becoming the president.
In other Kavanaugh related news, Tom Perez recently stated that the dnc will continue to support dems who vote to confirm him.
“It’s a big club… and you’re not in it” – Carlin