Initial claims remain positive  – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims declined this week -8,000 to 212,000. The four week average rose 5,750 to 218,250. With the typical one-week lag, continuing claims rose 30,000 to 1.865 million: On the more important (for forecasting purposes) YoY basis, initial claims are down -1.9%. The four week […]

The long leading forecast for 2024 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat A couple of times a year I update my long leading forecast. With the latest GDP and Senior Loan Officer Survey data, there is enough to take a look at what the next 12 months probably have in store. This article is up […]

January 2024 consumer inflation: still a tug of war between gas and housing  – by New Deal democrat As it has been for going on two years, consumer inflation has boiled down to a contest of strength between energy (mainly gasoline), which peaked in June 2022 and roughed in June 2023, and housing, which peaked […]

Aggregate payrolls vs. total withholding taxes paid: which one has been telling the truer tale?  – by New Deal democrat The drought in new data continues for today. So I wanted to take a further look at the two measures of total payrolls I discussed on Friday, one of which has been of some concern. […]

Weekly Indicators for February 5- 9 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Most notable is that two of the long leading indicators – interest rates and corporate profits – have turned from very negative to at very least neutral, increasingly suggesting better economic news ahead. As […]

And now for something completely different: portents of DOOOM  – by New Deal democrat. February 9, 2024 The lion’s share of the employment news recently has been very good. But not all of it. In particular, several of the annual revisions to the Household jobs Survey, and several other measures of employment and unemployment have […]

Initial jobless claims confirmatory of continued expansion  – by New Deal democrat Initial claims continue at their very low level, declining -9,000 to 218,000 last week.  The four-week moving average rose 3,750 to 212,250. With the usual one-week lag, continuing claims declined -23,000 to 1.871 million: For forecasting purposes the YoY% change is more important. […]

Scenes from the January jobs report: revisions changed the picture in the Establishment Survey  – by New Deal democrat Last Friday’s jobs report contained a number of annual revisions which change what the trend line for the last year looks like. Particularly the extent to which there has been continued deceleration, or even a downturn, […]

The Senior Loan Officer Survey makes an important turn   – by New Deal democrat The Senior Loan Officer Survey is a long leading indicator, telling us about credit conditions that typically turn worse a year or more before the economy turns down, and improve just at the economy is ready to turn up. The one […]

Weekly Indicators for January 29 – February 2 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. One week ago many of the high frequency indicators hit an “air pocket.” This week some – but not all! – resolved. At present there is one of the more anomalous situations […]