Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

COVID heads toward endemicity

Coronavirus dashboard for July 11: BA.4&5 now over 80% of cases without creating a new wave, as COVID heads toward endemicity The CDC’s variant proportions data for this past week is out, and it shows that combined BA.4&5 made up slightly over 80% of all infections. BA.5 was at 65%, and BA.4 at 16%: [Note: […]

Aggregate hours and payrolls of nonsupervisory workers and the onset of recessions

Aggregate hours and payrolls of nonsupervisory workers and the onset of recessions by New Deal democrat An important reason I focus on whether or not the economy is heading into recession is that during recessions income and jobs both decline for the middle and working classes as a whole. In that regard, Jared Bernstein, a […]

On abortion, women and Democrats can win, the big questions are how and when

If any more evidence is needed that the Democrats are, much, much more in step with the public on abortion than Republicans, two items.  First, more evidence that people have serious reservations about government meddling in the most personal of decisions: And this: House Republicans are weighing what kind of national-level abortion ban legislation to […]

State of the mid-terms

A month ago the upcoming election seemed likely to go very badly for the Democrats, with a large loss of seats in the House, and an uphill battle to hold the Senate as well.  Today things look somewhat brighter for the Democrats, for several reasons: The Republican nominating process has produced some pretty weak general […]

If This Goes On …

If This Goes On … | Homeless on the High Desert, Ten Bears June 29, 2022 in g’da said Republicans are absolutely going for the dark, theocratic future America First Legal (AFL), a right-wing group whose team includes several former Trump administration officials, is urging the Supreme Court to do even more to shatter what’s left of the […]

Explaining Away Stagflation, Inflation, and the Fed

I have been waiting for an explanation on inflation like this to break loose from a credible source other than myself(?). If you have been around long enough, you kind of know what is going to take place once the Fed starts to increase Fed rates. You may have been around in the seventies when […]

Weekly Indicators for July 4 – 8 at Seeking Alpha

Weekly Indicators for July 4 – 8 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. The 10-2 year Treasury yield inverted again, with very little fanfare. And several other leading indicators deteriorated a little further as well. But as the jobs report showed, the nowcast is still positive. As usual, clicking over […]

Inflation, tariffs, and Iran

(Dan here…lifted from comments) Barkley Rosser writes: There are two things Trump did that added to inflation that Biden has somehow not undone yet. One of them is reversing the Trump tariffs, which he clearly fears doing because of opposition by Organized Labor and many white working-class voters in the crucial Rust Belt states. Some […]