Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Weekly Indicators for May 23 – 27 at Seeking Alpha

 by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for May 23 – 27 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Few changes to the headlines, but lots of churning underneath. People seem to have jumped the gun on recession, thinking one is either here or imminent. It’s not here, and it isn’t imminent. […]

Households are getting much more overextended

Real income and – especially – spending increase in April, but households are getting much more overextended by NewDealdemocrat In April nominal personal income rose 0.4%, and spending rose 0.9%. March’s spending was revised up from 1.1% to 1.4%. In more good news, the personal consumption deflator, i.e., the relevant measure of inflation, rose only 0.2%, […]

And Babies?

And Babies? Uvalde = My Lai. This is not hyperbole. War crimes are an inevitable byproduct of war. Mass shootings are an inevitable byproduct of militarism and a militarized culture.  The same political process that led to and perpetuated the war in Vietnam continues to perpetuate the slaughter of innocents in American schools, supermarkets, nightclubs, subways, […]

Real money supply declines sharply; another leading indicator for recession next year

Real money supply declines sharply; another leading indicator for recession next year  Real M1 declined -0.8% in April, and real M2 declined by -0.7%, following March declines of -1.0% for each: These have been the sharpest monthly declines since 2005: Real money supply is a long leading indicator, as shown in the below graph of […]

Punctuation And The Second Amendment

Punctuation And The Second Amendment  For most of American history since the Second Amendment was adopted the courts interpreted it as tying the second portion of the amendment to the first part of it. Thus the “right to bear arms” was tied to the need to establish a “well-regulated militia.” The “state” was seen as […]

Initial and continuing jobless claims continue moderating trend

Initial and continuing jobless claims continue moderating trend Initial jobless claims declined 8,000 to 210,000 last week, continuing above the recent 50+ year low of 166,000 set in March. Meanwhile, the 4-week average rose by another 7,250 to 206,750, compared with the all-time low of 170,500 set seven weeks ago.  Continuing claims also rose from […]

A Certain Model of an Ideal Man

Kind of how we got to today’s environment of protecting various types of bullet-spewing-weapons. May 26, 2022 Professor Heather Cox Richardson One of the key things that drove the rise of the current Republican Party was the celebration of a certain model of an ideal man, patterned on the image of the American cowboy. Republicans […]

Nat. Gas Rigs +32 Mo, DUCs low, Completions 17% below Avg.

RJS, Focus on Fracking Summary: Natural gas rigs at a 32 month high; DUCs at a record low; 4.5 month Drilled but Uncompleted Wells (DUC) backlog is lowest in 7 years; completions remain 17% below prepandemic average… This Week’s Rig Count The number of drilling rigs running in the US increased for the 74th time over the […]