…it seems that way, at least, when I listen to much of the rhetoric coming out of Washington. But it’s not just Washington, it’s Wall Street, too. In my line of work, finance, market participants grapple with the monthly economic data flow, eyeing each release as if it’s telling a new story about the current […]

There are reasons to expect the second half of the year to be be stronger than the first. Here are two: (1) the rebound in industrial activity following supply chain disruptions, and (2) possible impetus to investment spending coming from the depreciation allowance that expires this year. These factors, though, are just dressing up what […]

Yesterday I addressed the weak high-frequency indicators, specifically with respect to leading indicators of investment spending on equipment and software (durable goods). I argued that Q2 has not started off well, given that the real core orders for capital goods are down compared to the January to March average. The BEA reported that Q1 2011 […]

They keep calling it a ‘soft patch’ in my business; but when’s the data going to show otherwise? This soft patch is persistent, and durable goods orders confirm it into Q2 2011. Note: The ‘all manufacturing’ orders Y/Y growth rate are available through March only in Datastream for the chart above; the nondefense capital goods […]

This week further evidence has emerged of Germany’s slowing growth trajectory. At 4.9% annual growth (calendar-adjusted) and a tightening bias from the ECB, this was, of course, to be expected. READ MORE AFTER THE JUMP!Yesterday the Manufacturing May ‘Flash’ PMI by Markit Research highlighted, in my view, that sentiment is unlikely to remain at these […]

There is growing discord between the ECB and national politicians over a ‘soft restructuring’ of Greek debt. The ECB doesn’t want it, while national policy makers grapple over it. And just in case you were wondering what a soft restructuring actually is, Joseph Cotterill at FT Alphaville explains. Beyond the gobbledygook restructuring talk is a […]

Today Eurostat released April 2011 inflation for the Euro area. Prices are increasing at a 2.8% annual pace, up from 2.7% in March and very much above the ECB’s comfort zone of around but slightly below 2%. Today’s report is the second release and includes the cross section of price gains below the headline number. […]

For all of our economic problems here in the US, a simple measure of ‘misery’ illustrates that US households are less miserable in March 2011 than those in the Euro area. The chart below illustrates the simple ‘misery index’, which is the unemployment rate plus inflation. The blue line is a 45-degree line; those countries […]

Today Eurostat released their estimate of Euro area growth for the first quarter of 2011. The economy grew smartly, or 0.8% on the quarter on a seasonally- and working day- adjusted basis. On the face of it, Euro area growth, which is 3.3% on an annualized basis, dwarfs the 1.8% seen in the US economy. […]

Over the last couple of months, a string of events made policy makers and investors alike say, what? Greece must raise capital next year and meet a 7.5% deficit target this year? Yes, they do, unless circumstances change. It’s near impossible to bet successfully on what Euro area policy makers are going to do, so […]