– by New Deal democrat Before I get to the main event, a couple of quick comments on the other data released so far this morning:  1. Real GDP as revised only grew at 0.7% annualized in the 4th Quarter of last year. This is often, but by no means always, recessionary. And since there was […]

Summations: “Real gross domestic product (GDP): increased at an annual rate of 3.1 percent in the third quarter of 2024, according to the ‘third’ estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.0 percent. Compared to the second quarter, the acceleration in real GDP in the third […]

January personal income and spending: Goldilocks is knocking at the door  – by New Deal democrat Personal income and spending has become one of the two most important monthly reports I follow, because it nets out the impacts of higher interest rates and abating inflation due to the unlinking of the supply chain. Because real […]

A mixed picture on real personal income, savings, and spending in March, and real total sales in February  – by New Deal democrat As I’ve indicated a number of times recently, right now I consider the report on personal income and spending co-equal to the employment report as the most important monthly data. For March, […]

Strong upward revisions push real personal income to new highs, put 2 important coincident indicators firmly in expansion territory  – by New Deal democrat Almost all of the news in this morning’s release for personal income and spending for January was positive. Nominally, personal income rose +0.6% and personal spending rose 1.8%. The deflator also […]

June personal income and spending show pandemic cushion approaching depletion How well personal income and spending held up throughout the pandemic is one of the best things about the government response. For June, nominal personal income increased 0.1%. After inflation, however, it decreased -0.4%. Nominal personal spending increased 1.0%. After inflation, it still increased 0.5%. […]

Real personal income has completely made up its recession losses, now exceeds pre-recession peak The last of the 4 monthly coincident markers for whether the economy is in recession vs. expansion was reported this morning for April. Let’s take a look. In nominal terms, personal income declined -13.1%, taking back most, not by no means […]

February personal income and spending decline: the back end of January stimulus payments Last month I wrote that the: “report on January personal income and spending shows just how important the stimulus packages enacted by the federal government both last spring and last month have been to sustaining the economy.” The truth of that was […]

Real personal spending declines in December, while income rises; not quite enough to start a “double-dip” recession This morning’s report on personal income and spending for December reversed the pattern we have seen all during the second half of 2020. After rebounding strongly for 6 months, real personal spending (blue in the graph below) declined […]

Hat tip Calculated Risk: •From the BEA:Personal Income for Metropolitan Areas, 2009 Personal income declined in 2009 in most of the nation’s metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs), according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.The per capita income in my MSA fell 3.8% last year.