…connect peak to peak and trough to trough to construct the green lines. The red line extensions are arbitrary estimates. The yellow midine was constructed by taking an average of…

…Note that in the last 50 years, real aggregate payrolls have always peaked 6 to 12 months before the onset of a recession, usually declining but occasionally just going sideways…

…2008 peak of 2,160,681. Things are finally getting better, but Ireland is still not all the way back. By contrast, currency-devaluing, banker-jailing Iceland long ago passed its old employment peak…

…the peak investment share of GDP was reached in the early 1980s when the after-tax profit share was near its post war low. Investment hit a second peak in 2000,…

…of 1998 before rising to 32% in 2000. After falling briefly, at the peak of the housing bubble in early 2006 it had reached a secondary peak just over 35%…

…house price in the US has now reaxhed and seems to be surpassing the peak level in 2006 before the crash that brought on the Great Recession. Needless to say,…

…still -2.9% below their January 1973 peak: Finally, something important is going on with aggregate real wages. This tells us how much more American workers as a whole in real…

…Housing Has Peaked For This Cycle. Obviously with Wednesday’s permits and starts data, housing has exceeded its prior peak. So what happened? Obviously the Fed did recently – very tardily…

…on April 24) NY: 3,951 day/day (vs. 11,434 on April 15 peak) US ex-NY: 21,876 (vs. 27,051 on April 15 NY peak) ***US Rate of increase: day/day: 2% (vs. 3%…

…seen its decline of 2/3’s from peak be much more gradual (although faded, you can see Spain and Italy having similar, and even more gradual declines from their respective peaks)…