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The Shape of the Future

…its life expectancy. Change, therefore, is unlikely until people finally arrive at the belief they understand what it is all about. Such a process has no definable rhythm. The arrival…

…provided by immigration which provides us with around 200,000 new residents per year. We now add in some increases in average life expectancy and arrive at 75 million Germans in…

Get the Lead Out II

…the USA banned lead early. The UK went unleaded in 1986 12 years after the USA. The USA violent crime peak came in 1995. So the predicted UK crime peak

STOCK MARKET VALUATION

…To get around that problem Graham and Dodd advocated using trailing 10 year earnings. This measure of EPS would include both peak earning and trough earnings and so generate an…

Longer view of savings vs disposable income

…interest income peak coincides with the percentage peak of savings in the first chart. The savings % of disposable income peaks in 1982 at 11.2 and the income from interest…

The Best of Times

…to 2050 are projections from the Census Bureau As an example of adapting policy to demographic changes: In the early 1980s, the Baby Bust generation was in their peak earning…

Housing, the Fed and M3

…regarding not confusing correlation with causation, but it does appear that housing has peaked in the past when price adjusted M3 has peaked. Price adjusted M3 appears to be peaking