Today’s lesson: never simply project the current trend forward An important reason why I am so insistent on dividing data into long leading, short leading, and coincident indicators is in order to avoid the most common pitfall in any forecasting, which is that of projecting the current trend forward. This morning PPI for February was […]
Marx’s “most realistic… most amazing insight!” In his farewell lecture at Brandeis University, “Obsolescence of Socialism,” Herbert Marcuse quoted a passage from the Grundrisse and claimed that in Capital, Marx had “repressed this vision, which now appears as his most realistic, his most amazing insight!” As large-scale industry advances, the creation of real wealth depends increasingly less on […]
I just finished Robert Service’s biography of Lenin. The “Marxism” of Lenin was not Marxist at all. Classical Marxism holds that capitalism must achieve a high level of industrialization before the workers can overturn the landlords and factory owners and collectivize the fruits of labor for the benefit of workers. Like Mao, Lenin retrofitted socialist […]
by Joseph Joyce The Restructuring of Sovereign Debt The economic repercussions of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will be devastating for many countries that have yet to recover from the pandemic. Higher prices for commodities, particularly energy and food, will increase inflation rates and widen trade deficits for those nations that import those items. Increases in […]
Jay Battacharya and Martin Kulldorff, two of the authors of the Great Barrington Declaration, have been whining for months about how unfairly they have been treated, how they have been criticized and even censored for their views on COVID policy. Yet now, at the Brownstone Institute, that illustrious citadel of liberal freedom, we find them […]
I should stop posting about Ukraine, since I have no expertise and not much ability to judge the credibility of things I read. But I keep reading and want to share some twitter threads about Russian logistics that I found interesting. I had assumed that the Russians would eventually get their logistics problems more or […]
RJS; MarketWatch 666, Covered here is everything having a major price change. This includes the 2.4% increase in the price index for men’s underwear, the 3.8% increase in the price index for women’s underwear, and also prices for what are now more than 40 items having a double-digit year over year increase. CPI Rose 0.8% […]
Another big increase in consumer prices in February, as the yield curve tightens Consumer prices increased 0.8% in January, the fourth time in five months that it has exceeded 0.5%. YoY inflation is now 7.9%, the highest rate since 1982. My favorite measure, CPI ex energy, is also up 6.6% YoY, the worst since the 1981-82 recession […]
RJS, Focus on Fracking, Oil jumps $15 to a 13½ year high, then tumbles $21; natural gas supplies now 16% below normal Oil prices fell for just the second time since November this week, but not before jumping nearly $15 to a new 13½ year high before the market even opened for the week . . . […]