Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

The Republican assault on social insurance continues apace

Republicans have made their desire to cut – or gut – Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid clear for decades.  Jack Fitzpatrick tells us that they are gearing up for another bite at the apple: Social Security and Medicare eligibility changes, spending caps, and safety-net work requirements are among the top priorities for key House Republicans […]

Patagonia: Life Imitates Theory

“Patagonia: Life Imitates Theory,” Econospeak by Peter Dorman  When Yvon Chouinard, the founder of Patagonia, completed the transfer of that company’s ownership to an environmental trust fund, it was front-page news across the country.  It came as something less than a shock to me, however, because I had described a very similar structure in a paper I […]

September consumer inflation; function of fictitious “owners’ equivalent rent”+ new cars

“September consumer inflation: primarily a function of the fictitious “owners’ equivalent rent” plus new cars”  – by New Deal democrat Since last November I’ve been hammering the fact that the official CPI measure of housing inflation, “owners’ equivalent rent,” seriously lagged, as in by a year or more, actual house prices as measured by the […]

Initial claims continue to rise along with gas prices

“Initial claims continue to rise along with gas prices“  – by New Deal democrat Last week I wrote that initial jobless claims may have ended their recent downtrend. This week appears to have confirmed that. Initial claims rose 9,000 to 228,000, and the 4 week average rose 5,000 to 211,500. Continuing claims, which lag somewhat, […]

Republicans Plan to Use Debt Limit Leverage to Cut Social Security and Medicare

Introduction: FFS Medicare Overhead costs are ~2%. Medicare Advantage overhead costs are far higher. The same can be said for commercial healthcare costs paid by insurance companies. Neither MA administered healthcare or commercial insurance plans can compete with FFS Medicare for costs and care. I will touch on a few reasons why on Medicare at […]

The WASDE Is Out, May the Kernels Fall Where They Will

USDA has now dropped the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates in the much awaited October reporting. In a simple one liner, here is the gist of it – lower soy and corn yields this year (drought and lack of fertilizer – we saw this one coming), but wheat supply down, but higher than last […]

As the economy slows, so has producer price growth

As the economy slows, so has producer price growth  – by New Deal democrat Consumer prices for September will be released tomorrow. This morning the upstream producer prices were released. Total PPI rose by 0.4%, after two straight months of decline; but excluding those and December 2021, the lowest monthly increase since November 2020. Here are […]

Managing escalation risk and arming Ukraine

The desire to manage escalation risk – especially the risk of a nuclear attack – has clearly led the United States to withhold weapons from Ukraine.  We may also be slow-walking delivery of weapons or limiting quantities to reduce escalation risk, although perceived delays could be due to training and logistics issues or our own […]