Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Per Prof. Edward Leamer’s forecasting method, a yellow flag “Recession Watch” is warranted

 – by New Deal democrat In a landmark paper almost 20 years ago, UCLA Prof. Edward Leamer wrote that “Housing IS the Business Cycle.” In that paper he concluded: In the years before recessions . . . consumers contribute a total of 65% of the leading weakness. In contrast, business spending contributes only 10%…. The temporal […]

Trump Tariffs, Who Pays?

Warning: Today’s Post Will be even Wonkier Than Usual . . . Until recently the question of who pays tariffs (Paul Krugman) wasn’t controversial among economists. The overwhelming consensus was that under normal circumstances tariffs — taxes on imported goods — are passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices. There are caveats […]

Oil Exploration Louisiana

Quick and short introduction. The state of Louisiana is suing oil and gas companies for damage to the environment in their exploration, sourcing, and production of oil and gas. In the process of doing so, the state claims the companies caused considerable damage to what is called a Coastal Zone. The issue being gaining the […]

What is college for?

My parents were both college grads. My dad was an MIT-trained chemical engineer. My mom had a bachelor’s degree in psychology. After she finished college, she got married and became a homemaker, eventually raising five children. Needless to say, during that time she wasn’t earning the average salary of a high school grad—she wasn’t earning […]

Supreme Court to hear arguments from oil and gas companies to block climate change lawsuits

– by Lindsay Whitehurst Public Broadcasting Service Associated Press  Supreme Court (Monday, February 23) it will hear oil and gas companies’ grievances and their attempt to block lawsuits holding the industry liable for billions of dollars in damage linked to climate change. The court agrees to take up the Boulder, Colorado case. This case is one […]

Repeat existing home prices continue to increase at a snail’s pace, but still outstrip post-pandemic wage growth

 – by New Deal democrat In the past month, all of the various home price indexes have confirmed abating inflation in the shelter sector. This morning the FHFA and Case Shiller house price indexes were updated through December. Last week we got price information for new houses, and earlier in the month for existing homes. In this […]

A Circular Economy

Finally rested and can comment on Lloyd’s commentary. Definitely something the user of aluminum in products should read. Not all aluminum product are the same. Even so, it does offer a better use material in many instances. Is the aluminum can the key to a circular economy? Lloyd Alter Carbon Upfront! Is the aluminum can […]

Economic Numbers Portraying the United States Economy

 The State of the Union in Numbers. A Quick and Short Review In 2025, the economy expanded as GDP increased, inflation decreased slightly, and the size of imports and exports shifted. These and other measures provide a snapshot of economic activity, prices, and the labor market heading into 2026. How was the economy doing? In 2025, […]

Don’t make deals with terrorists

This is why nations shouldn’t pay ransom. “The president reacted to the Supreme Court’s judgment by initially announcing a new universal 10% levy, using a different legal framework for the latest tariffs, but then increased the global tariff rate to 15% — the legal maximum which can be in place for 150 days before congressional […]