Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Jobless claims continue tame

– by New Deal democrat This week initial jobless claims declined -6,000 to 219,000. The four week moving average declined -1,250 to 223,000. With the typical one-week delay, continuing claims rose 56,000 to 1.903 million, the highest number since 2021: Since last year this week there was something of an outlier to the upside, by […]

Congressional Control Goes to Trump and Musk

GOP’s subservience to Trump and Musk is also problematic for Democrats featured at MSNBC originally. The GOP is throwing out the powers that the Constitution gave Congress to better bow to the Republicans scrambling to keep Trump and Musk from hurting their constituents. The Constitution’s authors clearly saw Congress as being the first among equals in the […]

“Those who cannot see must feel:” global trade and tariffs edition

“Those who cannot see must feel:” global trade and tariffs edition  – by New Deal democrat Before I get to today’s data, let me make this brief note on the tariffs that were announced late yesterday and the instant reaction overnight. As to the effect on the US and global economy, I really don’t have anything […]

Versatility of conviction

The tariffs were always about extortion, soliciting bribes. They were never about helping the economy, balancing the budget, trade deficits or reducing taxes. “After multiple White House aides insisted that the new tariffs were not a negotiation, Trump said he would be open to negotiating with other countries about the duties. “Trump said he would […]

High Tariffs with International Value-Added Chains

Things are moving so fast, that I am a day late with this. I argue that Trump’s insane tariffs will, in some cases, impose higher costs on US than foreign manufacturers. There are two key issues. First tariffs are charged the full value of a good, not the value added in the target foreign company. […]

The Trump Administration hates veterans (cont’d)

Trump called fallen American soldiers “suckers” and “losers.” Presumably because they didn’t find a podiatrist who could claim they had “bone spurs.” Now the Trump Administration is punishing living veterans for their service. In the latest episode: “The U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs said Thursday that it will end a mortgage-rescue program designed to help […]

CBO Projection of Extending the 2017 Tax Breaks Plus Some

This is about a 12-minute read. It is most of the CBO report minus what I thought would be extraneous information, detail you may not need. I get lost in the detail and have to read it a few times. These are projections based upon various assumptions. Budgetary Outcomes Under Alternative Assumptions About Spending and […]

Trade with Mexico and Canada

As one commenter to this post (23 cars and trucks said) said: It is only for cars meeting the requirements of USMCA like having 75% of the parts sourced from North America. U.S. goods and services trade with USMCA totaled an estimated $1.8 trillion in 2022. Exports were $789.7 billion; imports were $974.3 billion. The […]