Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Oil prices and consumer spending.

With the recent surge in oil prices I thought it would be useful to look at the potential impact with one set of data I watch. It is energy as a share of personal consumption expenditures or consumer spending. In the 1970s energy consumption rose from about 6% to 9% of spending, or about 50%. […]

Eisenhower as a lefty politico

An opinion piece in the NYT points us to new docs on former President Eisenhower: LAST week the National Archives released a trove of drafts and notes that shed new light on President Dwight D. Eisenhower’s farewell address, in which he warned America about the “military-industrial complex.” More can be found here. On Oct. 31, […]

The Pentagon Labyrinth

by Mike Kimel Cross posted at the Presimetrics blog. I just came upon The Pentagon Labyrinth Its a very readable, very informative collection of essays about national defense in the United States.  The essays are written by ex-defense personnel (some of whom were very influential) and journalists who cover the military, and to top it […]

Supreme court justice conduct and conflict of interests

I sent this Salon article on the Supreme Court justice Clarence Thomas The bigger Clarence Thomas scandal by Ben Adler to Beverly Mann asking her what she thought of the article. The article discusses the possible conflict of interest regarding Judge Thomas’s ruling on Citizen’s United and his failure to disclose his wife’s earnings: Experts […]

The UK faces a serious inflation issue if oil pops!

Bond markets are pricing in rate hikes this year by the ECB and the BoE. Both are inflation targeters, so which one should react first to a possible spike in oil prices? What’s your answer? (1) Neither. As FX appreciation and fiscal austerity pass through to domestic prices, the core will drag down the headline. […]

Medical Malpractice Reform: Truth in Advertising Needed (Part Two of Three)

by Michael Halasy Medical Malpractice Reform: Truth in Advertising Needed (Part Two of Three) So in the first article, we discussed the historical implications of tort reform by examining Texas. The take home message being that tort reform failed to curb health care spending, and/or control costs (outside of malpractice premiums which did fall). Proponents […]

QE2 & TIPS

Last year many economists argued that the economy needed more quantitative easing which would drive down real interest rates (whether by driving down long maturity nominal rates or by driving up expected inflation). The counter argument is that quantitative easing is not effective if there is a liquidity trap. Well we now have QE2 (since […]