Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Greg Mankiw Gives Us Another Reason to Scream "Yours!"

I think he may believe it’s good news that the S&P 500 forward valuation (what we believe we might make next year, having nothing necessarily to do with current earnings or actual sales) has returned, approximately, to the level of 1998.* The problem, as I noted more than two years ago, is that, even ignoring […]

Oil prices: 1970s vs Current Situation

Just a quick chart to compare the current situation to the 1970s. When I ran the chart I did not expect such a nice match. The price series is West Texas intermediate.

Michelle Malkin Will Get the Vapors When She Sees This

As a direct result of the six-Republican, one Democrat California Supreme Court’s decision last week, people who have shared everything for 21 years now get to marry. Pull quote: As a Japanese American, I am keenly mindful of the subtle and not so subtle discrimination that the law can impose. During World War II, I […]

Index funds and commodities 2

Further lifting (of comments like cactus) by juan: “…the term ‘speculators’ tends to imply short-term traders while it’s my understanding that most of the index funds take longer term or more ‘sticky’ positions, but this can become a matter of semantics that detracts from what Briese and some others have tried to bring out — […]

Correlation is not Causation, but

J. C. Bradbury notes that early-season weather and home runs hit, while it is noted in comments that the decline is primarily in the American League and some suggestions on developing a model are made. (No, I’m not turning this into a baseball blog. There are purposes to these posts. All will be revealed.)

BW on Soc Sec X: the Danger of Low Cost

Well I am just going to lift the following from my little visited blog. In my defense a commenter back in April suggested publishing it on Angry Bear, at the time I didn’t have posting privileges.People who follow Social Security issues understand that in addition to the Intermediate Cost Alternative whose dates and numbers are […]

Just a distraction

25*30 = 750 104/750 = 13.9% For those more conversant in the “disincentives of enforcement” literature than I, can you back into the Rational Expectation of Enforcement Practices that would lead nearly 14% of a population to conclude it is maximizing utility? And, given your calculation, what would that say about the Management Practices of […]

Greg Mankiw on beef exports to Japan

Greg Mankiw reports on the difficulties US beef producers are having selling in the Japanese market. He blames it on Australian competition. Does he not know that the problem is that Team Bush will not allow American beef exporters to inspect their beef for mad cow disease? Does he really have such a low opinion […]

The glorious feeling of holding truth

We all feel this at times, when our ideas come together and form a wonderful pattern that would ‘work’. Writers sometimes shine as their works strike a chord in readers, and we have a grasp on reality. Then the light moves on. Often it happens in adolescence based on where we live and under particular […]

BW on Soc Sec IX: the Paradox of Benefit Cuts

I have a horse race to watch so this will be short and in the form of a intellectual challenge. In any year that Social Security is in surplus, as it is now and is projected to be until 2017, cutting benefits actually increases total federal debt and so worsens the overall financial outlook going […]