First a recap: Philip Tetlock’s Expert Political Judgment was a groundbreaking look at whether political experts really are expert, as judged by their success at making predictions. His overall conclusion: they aren’t. But (lifted from a previous post): …among the experts, ”foxes” — those who in Nicholas Kristof’s words are “are more cautious, more centrist, […]

Last February, in the lead-up to the all-important Michigan primary, Romney wrote an op-ed piece in the Detroit News titled “U.S. autos bailout ‘was crony capitalism on a grand scale’.”  The dual purpose of the piece was to defend the recommendation he made in a November 18, 2008 op-ed article in the New York Times titled “Let […]

Stan Collender notes that, for the first time in four years, the U.S. Treasury reported a surplus in the month of April.  It isn’t just that there was a surplus in April of 2008, though.  If you look back through Aprils (data here), the last time that month showed a deficit is 1983—the April less […]

Peter Dorman at Econospeak brings us another reminder about policy decisions on the economy.  Reposted from Econospeak: The Main Point Macroeconomics is complicated and political economy is devilish, so it is easy to get lost in the details. From time to time, it’s good to come up for air—to remember what the fundamental issue is. […]

Now that the OECD has updated their GDP data for 2010, I thought I should revisit the question I asked a few years ago: Who’s growing faster? The U.S. or Europe? The answer’s the same as it was then: it’s a dead heat. As I pointed out in that previous post, people love to cherry-pick […]

by Linda Beale Ten tax tricks (non-rich need not apply) Back on tax day in April, Bloomberg.com ran a good story on the tax tricks the rich can use to reduce, defer or avoid altogether federal income taxation. Jesse Drucker, How to Pay No Taxes: Ten Strategies Used by the Rich, Bloomberg.com (Apr. 17, 2012). […]

by Mike Kimel Libertarians and Privacy Over at EconLog, David Henderson berates a fellow libertarian on the difference between Facebook at the Census. But let’s grant, for the sake of this discussion, that FB is quite contemptuous of privacy and that the Census Bureau is less so. Here’s the difference. Every single person who signs […]

by Noni Mausa Inequality on the Island Your island has 1000 people. 500 are working age, 500 are children or elderly and can’t do much.  That’s normal, and not a problem. The 500, working together, easily produce enough food and stuff for 5000 people, while also supporting the 500 young, old and disabled.  In fact, […]

…I would not be likely to find them.  But at least I know how to look. Start at the macro level and see if there is a noticeable shift in revenues: Source: BEA I decided that anything that didn’t have at least a 0.3% change in its effect on GDP over three years could not […]

PGL at Econospeak points us to Charles Riley of CNNMoney has a must see graph showing how defense spending under Mitt Romney would compare to the current DOD baseline budget over the next decade. His title notes the spending over the next decade will exceed the baseline budget by more than $2 trillion. I like […]