Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

The Fed Faces the End Game — And Blinks?

If you’ve ever been involved in a legal contention, like a business or personal dispute or a contested divorce, you know that the whole game pivots, ultimately, on the potential end game: what would happen if the thing went to court — even if (even because) everyone involved knows that it never will. The fact […]

Event Studies and Efficient Markets

I do not find event studies interesting or convincing. I consider them an example of Schizzo-finance in which the efficient markets hypothesis is switched on and off. The field embraced that hypothesis for a while and I don’t think people understand how often they rely on it. In an event study, the effect of a […]

Third party efficacy

Yves Smith posted a call to action. If you want this country to be different, you can’t just wish for it or expect voting to effect change. You need to be part of making it happen. And that was perhaps the greatest of Obama’s deceptions, that by listening to his seductive rhetoric, your passivity made […]

EITC: Mulligan (economic theory) vs. Seto (empirical evidence)

by Linda BealeEITC: Mulligan (economic theory) vs. Seto (empirical evidence) TaxProf today noted the article in the New York Times about the EITC: Casey Mulligan, Do Tax Credits Encourage Work? New York Times ( 2012). Mulligan, an econ prof at the University of Chicago (home, of course, to Milt Friedman’s “free” market theories) noted that […]

Supreme Court faces pressure to reconsider Citizens United

Lifted from an e-mail by Beverly Mann in response to an inquiry of mine on a Washington Post article: Hi Dan. The key paragraphs in a Washington Post article earlier this week, called Supreme Court faces pressure to reconsider Citizens United ruling say: The Supreme Court has already blocked the Montana decision, and the justices […]

All in one day of reporting…

This is just one days reporting from various sources. I thought I would pass them along. On the face of it perhaps the story line is clearer to even regular folk: JPMorgan Said to Hire Ex-SEC Enforcement Chief McLucas for Loss ProbeBy Joshua Gallu and Dawn Kopecki JPMorgan Chase & Co., the biggest U.S. bank, […]