Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Should the Military be Called Out for Civilian Disturbance?

I would say such could occur only as a last resort. Even then, it might only be for guard duty and rendering aid. After having been trained so we would be familiar with what was necessary to do, 4th Bn 10th Marines along with elements of the Army were ready. Never happened in 70 and […]

ADP Unemployment Report

Late Report on by Angry Bear U.S. (un)employment. Just did not think of it. ADP says private sector sheds jobs as government shutdown halts data, October 1, 2025 Companies shed 32,000 jobs last month, according to data from payroll processor ADP, marking the biggest private sector decline in two-and-a-half years — and yet another warning […]

Autism incidence vs autism diagnosis

RFK Jr has dishonestly portrayed the increase in autism diagnoses over the past 20 years as an increase in incidence of autism to justify his claim of an environmental cause for autism. Multiple published and refereed reports using twin pair studies show 60-90% heritability for autism, and those are probably underestimates. What changed in the […]

The advance-decline line and the (maybe) AI-fueled consumer spending bubble

– by New Deal democrat I rarely comment on the financial markets directly, since my focus in on the economy and how it impacts ordinary working and middle class Americans, especially in the near future. But in some cases, the financial markets themselves play an important role in that picture. And this is one of those […]

Achieving historically ‘normal’ GDP growth rates will be impossible

The U.S.-Born labor force will shrink over the next decade: Achieving historically ‘normal’ GDP growth rates will be impossible, unless immigration flows are sustained Economic Policy Institute Reduction of net immigration flows would lead to much slower labor force and GDP growth If we assume that any changes in population levels do not change labor […]

Being Seized by Homeland Security and Border Control Agents

It used to be said, “If you were not doing anything wrong, what do you have to worry about?” Today, just being on the street going home, to a store, walking to church, etc. is not guaranteed to being safe anymore. Authorities can target you, just because you look different than what they perceive a […]

Consumer spending has continued to increase

– by New Deal democrat I concluded my post yesterday with the conclusion that “while housing and trucking are plainly recessionary, the broader manufacturing orders outlook and consumer purchases of vehicles are not.”  Today I want to expand on that by taking a broader look at the main coincident measures of expansion vs. recession, and focus […]