Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Giving to the Ultra-Rich Through Tax Breaks

Talking politics here and probably rightfully so. Tax relief for the wealthy and kicking people off of Medicaid to fund those breaks will not go over big. It appears there is plans to cut Medicare also. Both cuts will be for funding tax breaks for wealthy in income. The highest 10% will average an ~ […]

Buyers Regret?

There have been a number of stories about the ways Trump has hurt the people who supported him in November 2024 and his declining approval among two groups who moved toward him in the last election –Hispanics and young men. He does not seem to have suffered much erosion in rural populations generally despite his […]

Alas, Cybertruck, we hardly knew ye

A Cybertruck passed us this morning on the way back from the south shore of Rhode Island. My wife remarked that it looked like a rolling dumpster. I’ve certainly never understood the appeal. Apparently, my aesthetic is shared. “Once one of the world’s most-hyped vehicles, sales and production numbers for Tesla’s Cybertruck have fallen sharply. […]

New DEal democrats Weekly Indicators for August 11-15

Weekly Indicators for August 11 – 15 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. This week I quantified the difference between commodity prices in the US$ vs. a basket of all other currencies. Perhaps unsurprisingly,  the upward pressure on commodity prices appears to be all, or almost […]

July retail sales: consumers party on, for now

 – by New Deal democrat As per usual, retail sales are one of my favorite economic indicators, because in the past they have told us a lot about both where the economy is at present, and because consumption leads employment, so much about where the economy is likely to be in the near term future. […]

Physician, heal thyself

32 economists associated with the University of Chicago at some point in their careers were awarded the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel, which is often referred to as the Nobel Prize in Economics. With all that expertise, you’d assume that the University of Chicago would be a paragon of […]

July industrial production: meh!

 – by New Deal democrat Industrial production is much less central to the US economic picture than it was before the “China shock,” since so much production moved overseas, meaning US consumers buy much more imported goods than they used to. Still it is an important if diminished coincident indicator. This morning’s report for July can […]

Slowing Job Growth To Date?

This piece by Claudia Sahm is about two weeks old. The perspective is still worth reading. The economy is still be pulled one way or another as Tr__p plays he tariff games up and down and who makes deals and who does not. That is enough to create uncertainty in the market. “There are factors […]

Producer prices for July (apparently) show the first significant negative effects of Tariff-palooza!

– by New Deal democrat Normally I don’t pay too much attention to producer prices, but occasionally they are very important – and today is one of those days.  Here’s why. In the past, as shown in this graph going back over 50 years: when producer prices outstrip consumer prices, that means producers aren’t able to […]