Weekly Indicators for March 23 – 27 at Seeking Alpha by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. As you might expect, almost all of the “hard” indicators have crashed. What sticks out is that consumer spending, as measured by chain store sales, has not – even though one week […]
The Covid-19 epidemic is creating a painful dilemma for policymakers. On the one hand, we need to practice social distancing to keep people healthy and to prevent our hospitals from being overwhelmed. Unfortunately, this strategy is causing a severe economic contraction as people avoid contact with others. An ideal response to this dilemma would have […]
The USA is about to experience the largest fiscal policy shift since World War II. The House is debating whether to add $ 2,200,000,000,000 to the Federal Budget Deficit (counting loans as if they were expenses because that’s what they do). There appears to be a near consensus as all are speaking in favor. It […]
Not surprisingly, many business owners are upset to discover that their business interruption policies do not cover losses due to pandemics. Although it is easy enough to understand their frustration, it is important to understand the underlying economics. (Full disclosure, I worked in the property casualty industry for many years.) The main business of insurance […]
The Senate economic rescue package contains $500 billion for bailouts of large corporations. Much commentary has focused on the lack of accountability, but the bigger issue is simply the massive waste of taxpayer dollars. From the WAPO: In a Tuesday interview on Fox, Boeing chief executive Dave Calhoun said he would not be willing to […]
The recent insider trading by members of Congress (notably but not exclusively by Senator Burr) is appalling. One policy response – advocated for by Elizabeth Warren – would prohibit MOCs from investing in the stock of individual companies, requiring them instead to invest in mutual funds. This would prevent the type of corruption evident in […]
I am still trying to wrap my head around the coronavirus disaster. Here is some current thinking . . . The immediate cause of the economic slowdown is a collapse in both demand and supply due to social isolation. This will have at least two knock-on effects. First, the initial collapse in economic activity will […]
We do not know how severe the covid-19 epidemic will be or how much economic and social pain it will cause, but it clearly has the potential to kill hundreds of thousands or even millions of Americans, and the economic consequences could include a deep recession and even a financial crisis that will cause misery […]
The day before yesterday, the Fed made a somewhat unusual announcement of $500,000,000,000 of REPO offers a day for three days in a row. The idea was to let banks unload risky assets before they panicked nipping a financial crisis in the bud. This move was controversial. Unfortunately many critics act as if the Fed […]
Before the recent swoon stock market market performance under Trump had been quite favorable. The market gain since his inauguration (100) had been (144) similar to those under Clinton (141) and Obama (150). At this point Ike actually had the best return ( 170) but Ike and Truman are not included in the chart because […]