January jobs report: A very strong report, but with pockets of significant weakness – by New Deal democrat As per usual, the Establishment and Household portions of the jobs report gave somewhat different impressions, complicated by annual revisions to each. In general, not only was January excellent of the Establishment report, but most months in the […]
New month’s data starts out with leading indicators in both manufacturing and construction indicating expansion – by New Deal democrat As usual, the new month’s data starts out with information on manufacturing and construction. The ISM manufacturing index has been a good leading indicator in that sector for 75 years. The difference over time, especially […]
We are into the fourth year of Biden’s first term as President and some are finally beginning to realize that maybe, just maybe what Joe did was mostly correct. Yeah sure, there were some things he got wrong. However, he did lead us through one of the worst economic calamities the nation has survived, a […]
Continuing claims near 2+ year high; likely the effect of Silicon Valley layoffs – by New Deal democrat Initial claims rose by 9,000 to a three month high of 224,000 last week. The four-week moving average also rose 5,350 to 207,750. With the usual one-week lag, however, continuing claims rose sharply, by 70,000, to 1.898 million, […]
A comment on median vs. mean, and job-stratified wage growth – by New Deal democrat Before today’s avalanche of data, I wanted to comment briefly on the Employment Cost Index for Q4 that was reported yesterday. This index has the advantage of weighting for type of employment. If low wage workers gain a disproportionate number of […]
I know Joel had Solar Panels on his home in St. Louis. He was pretty happy with them. If I remember correctly, he had them for a number of years. Since I am in AZ, it makes sense to install them. Maybe when we sit down and consider the return we will consider such. They […]
December JOLTS report: while hiring has weakened, firing (and quitting) continue to show a strong labor market – by New Deal democrat Yesterday’s JOLTS report for December showed a labor market that, while decelerating, remains relatively strong. Let me start with layoffs and discharges, which increased by 85,000 to 1.616 million (blue in the graph […]
I am attempting to present a simple way to portray the costs of healthcare in the US. Using pie charts, a bar chart, and a graph gets the measures of cost across and at the same time presents different discussion points. Merrill Goozner presents the same data as did Peterson and draws a different conclusion. […]
Repeat home sale prices continue rebound; rents continue decline – by New Deal democrat Since the Fed started raising interest rates almost two years ago, homebuilding has shifted away from single family houses to condos and apartments, the construction of which has made repeated all-time highs. This has become reflected in house price vs. apartment rental […]
Both production and transportation are down from 2022 peaks; why wasn’t that enough to cause a recession? – by New Deal democrat While I have written about how the Index of Leading Indicators failed last year, as the loosening of and disinflation in supply chains overwhelmed the effects of Fed tightening, it wasn’t as if […]