Real Q4 GDP completes the Boom of 2021, while long leading components warn of weaker 2022 to come Nominal GDP increased 6.9% in the 4th Quarter of 2021. After taking into account inflation, it increased 1.7% The last six economic quarters together have been the biggest economic Boom since 1983-84, as shown in the below […]
With seasonality over, it is clear that Omicron is responsible for increased layoffs With seasonality behind us, it is apparent that Omicron has resulted in increased layoffs. New claims declined 30,000 last week to 260,000 – still well above its pandemic low of 188,000 set early in December. The 4 week average of new claims […]
New home sales surge, while house price measures decelerate; expect deceleration or even downturns in each Since I didn’t post yesterday, let me catch up today with a note on both new home sales and prices.New home sales (blue in the graph below) for December rose sharply to 811,000 on an annualized basis. This is […]
RJS, Focus on Fracking Oil prices rose for a fifth consecutive week and hit a 7 year high in the process, on supply disruptions in the Middle East and on rising tensions between NATO and Russia…after rising 6.3% to $83.82 per barrel last week on a softening of Fed rhetoric and on a production shortfall by […]
All throughout the Midwest, Plains, pretty much anywhere that doesn’t get adequate rain you can look on Google maps and see square fields with bright green circles in the middle. These are pivot fields that are irrigated from aquifers below. The corners of those fields are usually left barren. No, these are not the corners […]
by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for January 17 – 21 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. A few months ago, in the midst of the Boom, virtually every indicator across all time spectrums was positive. In the past months, we have begun to see the deterioration in that situation, […]
It’s Called Stealing – What Big Retailers and Meat Packers are Doing to Cattlemen Kind of surprised by the shock and awe of the media over monopolistic power exerted on and by Supply Chains. They can be monopolistic and abusive because they are efficient. Just a rambling conversation “Protests have always been a part of […]
by New Deal democrat Short term economic forecast through mid year 2022 My short-term forecast for the first half of this year is up at Seeking Alpha. This forecast is based on the same system I have successfully used since before the Great Recession. Most forecasters, deliberately or not, cherry pick data points to fit a […]
RJS, MarketWatch 666 CPI Rose 0.5% in December on Higher Prices for Food, Shelter, Clothing, Vehicles, & Furniture; Annual Inflation at a 39 Year High The consumer price index rose 0.5% in December, as higher prices for food, clothing, shelter, new and used vehicles, airline fares, furniture, and laundry appliances and were partly offset by […]
“I Quit” Micheal Smith, The Ethics and Economics of Farmers Markets It is early, frosty mornings such as these where I would love to sleep past 6am, enjoy a cup of tea, watch the news and think about what is on the ‘has to get done list’. These days I think about fence work, discing in […]