Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Jobless claims, with hurricane effects abating, claims return to normal

 – by New Deal democrat It appears that, as I suspected earlier this month, the big YoY jump in initial jobless claims was largely due to the effects of the hurricanes, and is now abating. First, for the week initial claims declined another -12,000 to 216,000. The four week moving average declined -2,250 to 236,500. […]

Prelim. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Report

I included Table 1 for you to use as a backup to the written preliminary report. Click on it to enlarge. I have to leave and go to the Veterans Admin. to pass on more information. When I get back, I will add an opinion to this commentary and delete this message. Real gross domestic […]

No, overregulation isn’t crushing the American free market

Here’s House Speaker Mike Johnson: “We want to take a blowtorch to the regulatory state. These agencies have been weaponized against the people. It’s crushing the free market; it’s like a boot on the neck of job creators and entrepreneurs and risk takers. And so health care is one of the sectors, and we need […]

U.S. Economic Growth Extends Solid Streak

by Harriet Torry WSJ U.S. GDP rose at a 2.8% annual rate in the third quarter, easing slightly from the previous quarter. The U.S. economy continued its recent strong stretch this summer, bolstered by hefty consumer and government spending. Gross domestic product increased at a 2.8% annual rate in the third quarter, adjusted for seasonality and inflation, […]

Stagnation Gone and US Productivity Growing

A quick and brief review of the economic trends and the third quarter. My only opinion on this recital being Supply Chain returning to a norm should be given more credit. Its manipulation was definitely one of the major influences on inflation. Beyond the standard metrics of industrial investment, it is also worth noting how […]

Real GDP for Q3 nicely positive, but long leading components mediocre to negative for the second quarter in a row

 – by New Deal democrat As usual, I’ll take a quick look at this morning’s headline GDP numbers for Q3 before passing on to my more important focus on the release’s leading components.  Real GDP grew at a 2.8% annualized rate in Q3. Just like Q2, this is a perfectly good number in line with the […]

Healthcare and the 2024 presidential election

Republicans have long objected to the ACA, and Trump tried several times to have it overturned; he’s claimed he’ll replace it with something better, but in eight years, he’s never come up with even a rudiment of a proposal. And here’s Speaker Johnson at a campaign stop yesterday: “No Obamacare?” an attendee asked Johnson, referring […]

JOLTS report for September shows continued deceleration in almost all metrics, now close to a cause for concern

 – by New Deal democrat The JOLTS survey parses the jobs market on a monthly basis more thoroughly than the headline employment numbers in the jobs report. For several years, my mantra for a lot of statistics has been “deceleration.” Well, in the case of the employment market, we have passed the point where deceleration […]

Repeat home sales accelerate slightly monthly, but continue to show YoY deceleration

– by New Deal democrat This morning’s repeat house price indexes from the FHFA and Case Shiller continued to show deceleration in this metric which is very important to home buyers. Specifically, on a seasonally adjusted basis, in the three month average through August, U.S. house prices according to both indexes rose 0.3%. This is a slight […]