For decades, the American right has prophesized (a) the takeover of America by socialism/communism and (b) hyperinflation due to US debt. Neither has happened yet. America is as firmly as ever in the grip of plutocratic capitalist oligarchs, and while the GOP-fueled national debt is skyrocketing at their behest, US treasuries are still selling. So […]

 – by New Deal democrat Let’s take a look at the “real” purchasing power of average working and middle class Americans. The July jobs report showed that average hourly earnings for nonsupervisory workers rose a little under 0.3% (blue in the graph below). Consumer inflation (red) rose 0.2%, so “real” average hourly earnings rose 0.1%. […]

 – by New Deal democrat The post pandemic period has been an exception to many past relationships. This morning’s data on housing construction raises the issue as to whether housing is going to be included in those exceptions as well. That’s because the data has been classically recessionary for a number of months, and yet the […]

Talking politics here and probably rightfully so. Tax relief for the wealthy and kicking people off of Medicaid to fund those breaks will not go over big. It appears there is plans to cut Medicare also. Both cuts will be for funding tax breaks for wealthy in income. The highest 10% will average an ~ […]

Without a doubt, Pres. Tr__p has set up the United States for some type of retaliation in the future. Yes, Europe will adjust in some manner. Perhaps, Switzerland will move the final part of manufacturing to another country which is favored by the US. There are probably ways around this which need to be explored. […]

There have been a number of stories about the ways Trump has hurt the people who supported him in November 2024 and his declining approval among two groups who moved toward him in the last election –Hispanics and young men. He does not seem to have suffered much erosion in rural populations generally despite his […]

A Cybertruck passed us this morning on the way back from the south shore of Rhode Island. My wife remarked that it looked like a rolling dumpster. I’ve certainly never understood the appeal. Apparently, my aesthetic is shared. “Once one of the world’s most-hyped vehicles, sales and production numbers for Tesla’s Cybertruck have fallen sharply. […]

 – by New Deal democrat Forecasting has always been hard, and moreso since the supply chain issues of 2021-22 made reading the interest rate signals from the long leading indicators muddled. But at least the short leading indicators were intact. But now we have the additional wrench in the works in the form of a mafia-style […]

“refining and focusing on what works and what doesn’t.” Sharing a commentary as taken from The one-handed economist. The market share of economics Some economists have called our discipline the “queen of the social sciences.” Although all the social sciences offer insights on human behavior, it seems that economics gets the most public attention and “market […]

Weekly Indicators for August 11 – 15 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. This week I quantified the difference between commodity prices in the US$ vs. a basket of all other currencies. Perhaps unsurprisingly,  the upward pressure on commodity prices appears to be all, or almost […]