by Hale Stewart (originally published at Bonddad blog) Labor Market Slack and Weak Wage Growth From the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook: Sluggishness in core inflation in advanced economies—a surprise in view of stronger than expected activity—has coincided with slow transmission of declining unemployment rates into faster wage growth. Real wages in most large advanced […]
“Hurricane adjusting” initial claims has proven its value For the last month, I deduced a “hurricane adjusted” number for initial claims, which showed that the previous underlying positive trend was intact, with the four week average remaining in the 230,000’s. That approach was borne out by this week’s report, which, at 222,000, was the lowest […]
Vis New York Times Growth becomes the overriding motivation — something treasured for its own sake, not for anything it brings to the world. Facebook and Google can point to a greater utility that comes from being the central repository of all people, all information. However, such market dominance has obvious drawbacks, including the extreme […]
Marxism-Leninism And The Chinese Communist Party Congress At this moment I am watching live on Bloomberg News the opening speech by President/Party General Secretary/Chairman of the Military Commission Xi Jinping of the once-every-five-years Chinese Communist Party Congress. This is far more important than what one finds on other TV networks whether pro-Trump right now (how […]
(Dan here…Stormy sends a reminder that the world has a real side as well…lifted from an e-mail)) Calling out the precursor to an Ecological Armageddon. Thought you might like to see this study—also written up in Guardian. Economists are totally irrelevant. Profit and money are their game….and that game is ending within our children’s lifetime. […]
Underlying industrial production trend ex-hurricanes remains positive A few weeks ago, I suggested a hurricane workaround for industrial production. That approach was to average the four regional Fed indexes excluding Dallas, and add the Chicago PMI, and finally discount for the unusual strength this year in these regional indexes vs. production. Here was my conclusion: […]
A housing teaser Here is something I have been working on for the last month. As it happens, last week Kevin Drum posted some aspects of the same data. House prices have exceeded by a substantial margin median household income: But the monthly mortgage payments have not: This is because, while the prices of houses […]
A thought for Sunday: the Rule of Gerontocracy The US looks like government of, by, and for senior citizens. President Donald Trump just had his 72nd birthday. He assumed office at age 71, the oldest person ever to do so. In Congress, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is 75 years old. His Democratic counterpart, Charles […]
by Hale Stewart (originally published at Bonddad blog) Is This Why Wages Are Low? These are two graphs from a post over at the Center for Equitable Growth. The top chart shows that the relationship between unemployment and wage growth isn’t as strong as you’d think. Recent research highlighted by Fed President Bullard made the […]
The Incidence of the Obamacare Subsidies Justin Fishel and Mary Bruce covers Trump’s dismantling of Obamacare: The White House announced Thursday night that the administration will slash Obamacare subsidy payments to insurers. The “cost-sharing reduction payments,” worth an estimated $7 billion this year, are intended to reduce out-of-pocket costs for low-income Americans on Obamacare … […]