by Rebecca Wilder EA BoP Guide: CA and KA – EA too Dependent on Portfolio Inflows? This is part two of my multi-post commentary on the Euro area Balance of Payments (BoP). Yesterday, in part one, I compared the EA current account balance to its country-level cross section. Today’s post will be more instructive in […]
by Rebecca Wilder EA Balance of Payments: the Current Account I’ve been doing quite a bit of research on the balance of payments flows within the Euro Area (EA). Given the complexity of the balance of payments, there are too many angles to tackle in one post. Therefore, spanning the next week I will dedicate […]
By Rebecca Wilder European Policy Makers Don’t Understand But Markets Do So here we are: the Italian yield curve is flat at above 7%; the government institution is in question; and the ECB is using its SMP purchase program as a carrot to drive austerity implementation in and Berlusconi out. Some would argue that the […]
by Rebecca Wilder The Euro Area Precedent for Policy Failure Last weekend, a leaked Troika report (Troika = ECB + EC + IMF) revealed that European policy makers now comprehend that the Greek policy prescription is not working (bold by yours truly): The growth and fiscal policy adjustments assumed under the program individually have precedent […]
by Rebecca Wilder German industry is plugging away. Ending in August, the 3-month average of the seasonally- and calendar-day adjusted volume of industrial production (excluding construction) maintained a quick 8.3% annualized pace. Even if this core measure of industrial activity falls another 1% in September, the Q3 quarterly annualized pace would be 10.5% – a […]
By Rebecca Wilder This ‘Competitiveness’ Thing Is a Scam What is ‘competitiveness’? It’s an important part of the euro area leaders’ negotiated terms in the July 21st Summit announcement by the European Heads of State. The first paragraph, #4, and #11 of the announcement all refer to this issue of ‘competitiveness’: We also reaffirm our […]
Angry Bear contributor Rebecca Wilder has begun writing her own column, The Wilder View, at the internationally prestigious Economonitor (Nouriel Roubini). The Wilder View at Economonitor Europe: Why the One-Size-Fits-All Solution Won’t Work and Linking sovereign risk to corporate credit spreads in Europe …and is interviewed and quoted by Floyd Norris in the New York […]
by Rebecca Wilder I present some basic statistics to highlight the problem in Europe. In short, there exists a deleterious positive feedback loop between overly leveraged banks and their sovereigns in key markets. Exhibit 1: European Banks are overly levered. Spanning 2006 through the latest data point, key European banking systems – France, Germany, and […]
by Rebecca Wilder Recently we saw retail sales figures come out of Spain, Germany, France, and Italy. Across Europe, the seasonally-adjusted pattern of real retail sales is diverging. The chart above illustrates the real seasonally-adjusted and working-day-adjusted (for Europe) level of retail sales across key countries in Europe and the US (for comparison). The raw […]
Yesterday the Conference Board released its measure of consumer confidence, which dropped to 44.5 in August. This brings the Conference Board measure of confidence in line with the Reuters/University of Michigan measure of consumer sentiment. Bloomberg summarizes the Conference Board results. Confidence is important, since consumer spending accounts for the lion’s-share of aggregate spending. Consumer […]