Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Fun and games with transfer pricing

ProGrowthLiberal in his comments on my last post and in his own post at EconoSpeak highlights the fact that drug-maker AbbVie already makes most of its profits outside the United States, about 87% in fact over 2011-2013 by his calculation. For PGL, then, AbbVie is not the best example of an inversion because the horse […]

More On Consumers’ Inflation Forecasts

My http://angrybearblog.strategydemo.com/2014/07/anchored-perceived-inflation-or-how-fox-news-helped-obama.html has received more attention than I would have guessed. This should be a semi-serious post on the topic. The puzzling fact is the persistently too high forecasts of next years consumer price index inflation reported in the University of Michigan Thomson Reuters Survey of Consumer Sentiment. The median forecast has consistently been over […]

Transfer pricing and inversions

Yves Smith at Naked Capitalism adds an additional look at the ‘inversion’ process and rationale: Kenneth Thomas has been on this beat at Angry Bear. Here’s a short overview of how inversion deals work earlier this week,,, ,,, David Cay Johnston emailed me that there were errors in Forbes contributor Tim Worstall’s recent criticisms of […]

Example of not understanding Effective Demand

¯\_(ツ)_/¯ The Economist online magazine has an article called, Jobs are not Enough, where they show a poor understanding of effective demand. “Economic growth over the business cycle is driven mostly by swings in demand, and in recent years demand has been held back: households have been repaying their debts; the government has restrained its […]

Unintentional tax humor at Forbes

David Cay Johnston emailed me that there were errors in Forbes contributor Tim Worstall’s recent criticisms of the linked article. Indeed there are, but the biggest one (or at least the funniest one) isn’t the one Johnston pointed me to. Worstall writes that AbbVie’s pending inversion will not, by itself, reduce the taxes the company […]

European example of arriving at a wrong conclusion

John Bluedorn and Shengzu Wang wrote a post on the IMF blog called, Euro Area: An Unbalanced Rebalancing? They talk about the unbalanced Current Account trade balances within Europe where creditor nations continue with large surpluses, even though debtor nations are moving toward surpluses themselves. They give reasons of competitiveness, increased saving and low investment. […]

Uptick in inflation is consistent with Fisher Effect

I read an article by Gavyn Davies, Another False Alarm on US Inflation?. He states that projections of rising inflation are not warranted due to lack of wage-growth pressures. I agree with him, but I want to go one step further and say that the uptick in inflation is understandable. I have written before about […]

Job growth and tax increases

Via Economist’s View ‘California’s Job Growth Defies Predictions after Tax Increases’: This article, by David Cay Johnston, is getting a surprising number of retweets: State’s job growth defies predictions after tax increases, by David Cay Johnston, The Bee: Dire predictions about jobs being destroyed spread across California in 2012 as voters debated whether to enact […]

Recessionary signals… (Guest post)

Guest post by Bruce Carman. He first comments on an article from Jeremy Grantham who says that a coming bubble is likely. “. . . There are massive reserves of labor in the official unemployment plus room for perhaps a 2% increase in labor participation rates as discouraged workers potentially get drawn into the workforce […]

Simon Wren-Lewis’ Car Trouble is actually a Traffic Jam… Get off the highway and take an alternative economic route

Simon Wren-Lewis writes about the difference between how the neofiscalists and market monetarists view the solution to the world’s economic woes. Basically, neofiscalists are ready to use whatever is necessary. Market monetarists limit themselves to creative monetary policy. He uses a car analogy. “To understand why I do get annoyed with MM, let me use […]