I thought that the whole point of fiscal austerity was to turn the balance of trade and capital flow within the Euro area: debtors becoming savers and capital flows out of the Periphery and into to the core. We’re seeing the outset of such a shift; but it’s probably too slow in the making. The […]

Just look at Tracy Alloway’s imagery at FT Alphaville, and you’ll know what’s expected: an imminent Greek default. I still argue no, although European policy tactics are quite enigmatic and their next move is really anyone’s guess. Alas, here’s mine. Assuming that Greece does not secede from the Euro area, I give you three reasons […]

Update: Nouriel Roubini front pages this post on Euromonitor here. The ECB dove in and hiked its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.25%. I had the pleasure of listening to Wolfgang Munchau on Thursday, and he reiterated what I reluctantly understood: the ECB’s strict inflation target is ridiculously simple for such a complex […]

Today RJs Aggregator presents opinion across the web regarding proposed Republican budget cuts for fiscal year 2012. Of note, AB authors Ken Houghton and Kash also contributed to the debate. Guest Post: The RJs Aggregator – The Ryan Plan by RJ House Republicans Propose $4 Trillion in Cuts Over Decade – “House Republicans plan this […]

The point of this article is to demonstrate that Germany has enjoyed increased ‘competitiveness’ as measured by productivity levels and relative prices. But the clarity of Germany’s ‘competitiveness’ cannot be established by using German data in the form of a black box – a bird’s-eye view of the region is the only way to see […]

Introduction: Here’s another timely compilation of economic commentary by Rj from the Global Glass Onion. His thread highlights a recent interchange between straight Keynesian economists, Paul Krugman, for example, and Modern Monetary Theorists (MMT), like Jamie Galbraith, Bill Mitchell, Randy Wray, and Warren Mosler. I’ll add just one link to The RJS Aggregator today. At […]

I politely disagree with the conclusions of the article written by my Angry Bear colleague, Kash, where he envisages Greece defaulting in 2011 similarly to Argentina in 2001. I do agree, that the macroeconomic initial conditions in Greece scream default (actually, if you focus just on the measurable factors, like the current account, debt levels, […]

RJS had been a long-time commenter at my blog, News N Economics, and has joined Angry Bear’s thread of comments. RJS runs his own blog, Global Glass Onion, where he publishes a weekly newsletter encompassing news from around the world for his readership. Collaborating with Dan, we asked RJS to make a similar contribution to […]

Spain vs. Germany vs. UK: production trends showing holes in some growth stories Eurostat reports new orders for January: In January 2011 compared with December 2010, the euro area1 (EA17) industrial new orders index2 rose by 0.1%. In December 20103 the index grew by 2.7%. In the EU271, new orders increased by 0.2% in January […]

Mark Thoma rightly points out the hypocrisy of the deficit hawks’ intent to cut spending while approving military spending in the same sentence. Ryan Avent furthers the dicussion by stating that Washington has used the ‘dire fiscal’ rhetoric to sell short-term cuts that were unwarranted, given that the fiscal problems are structural in nature. Me, […]