This is what exponential growth looks like: 2,500,000 infected in the next 15 days, 50,000 deaths I had originally planned on limiting this post to the next 10 days. But then the Buffoon-in-Chief tweeted this: So let’s look at the number of diagnosed infections and deaths in the US by the time Trump gets around […]
by Joseph Joyce The True Owners of Foreign Capital Explaining the sources and destinations of capital flows is a key focus of research in international finance. But capital flows between countries can flow through financial centers before they arrive at their ultimate destination, and these intermediary flows distort the record of the actual ownership of investments. […]
For a Universal Debt and Rental Moratorium Incomes are collapsing throughout the economy, and both businesses and individuals face a crisis in meeting fixed payments they can’t control. The most direct step we can take is to temporarily suspend these payment obligations. Suppose the government were to announce that, starting immediately, all stipulated debt and […]
Coronavirus dashboard for March 22 This is a new daily or nearly daily update I hope to post, including the most important metrics to show how controlled – or out of control – the cononavirus pandemic is. Hopefully the numbers will move ever closer to the tipping point where the epidemic is under control.In order […]
b7 New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for March 17 – 21 at Seeking Alpha A vignette…. Cognoscenti: “It’s impossible to forecast the economy.” Forecaster: “Actually, if you rely upon a tried and true series of long and short leading indicators, you ca-“ Deity: “OH YEAH??? TRY FORECASTING THE GIANT SCREAMING METEOR OF DEATH!!!!!” G.S.M.O.D.: [BOOM! […]
The best US solution to the coronavirus pandemic: SHUT.IT.DOWN — two weeks of China + one month of South Korea For the last few weeks, I have been screaming at the top of my lungs about “exponential growth.” That’s because so few people realized the impact such growth could have in a pandemic, over the […]
I am still trying to wrap my head around the coronavirus disaster. Here is some current thinking . . . The immediate cause of the economic slowdown is a collapse in both demand and supply due to social isolation. This will have at least two knock-on effects. First, the initial collapse in economic activity will […]
Some Ideas for Pandeminomics The starting point for all of what follows is that government, if it has the will to act, is currently in the driver’s seat. Much of the private sector is facing a terrifying confluence of crunches: supply breakdowns, demand falling off a cliff for many goods and services, and a looming […]
The Coronavirus Recession has begun This morning we got two reports that confirm the beginning of the Coronavirus Recession: initial jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index. Initial claims rose to 281,000 one week ago. They are now 15% higher than their low last April, as well as almost 15% higher preliminarily on a […]
Given the Coronavirus crisis, there will be bailouts. Should there be bailouts ? If so how should firms be bailed out ? I think it is useful to look at the last round of bailouts from 2008-9 for lessons learned. First with the benefit of hindsight, does it seem that bailing out firms was a […]