(Dan here…another of David Zetland’s students Johanna writes on groundwater…a reminder of what also matters during this heated political climate, and from a younger generation. The first mention of water wars at AB was 2007 I believe.) Atlanta and downstream friends Johanna writes* This post offers some insight into the problems of water management in […]
January real personal income consistent with either slowdown or incipient recession Real personal income (less government transfers) is one of the four coincident indicators the NBER looks at in determining recessions. Since January’s numbers were reported this morning, let’s take an updated look. Truth be told, real personal income is actually a short lagging indicator. […]
Housing: prices follow sales, February 2020 edition One of the consistent things I have written about the housing market for going on 10 years is that interest rates lead sales, and sales in turn lead prices. Last week with the continued increase in housing starts and permits we got further proof of the former, and […]
by New Deal democrat The impact of coronavirus on my slowdown vs. recession forecast For roughly the last half year, my forecast has been that a slowdown without a recession was the most likely scenario, *IF* the economy were left to its own devices. Well, given the horror scenarios possible with the coronavirus outbreak, the […]
by Joseph Joyce The Long Reach of U.S. Monetary Policy The spillover of U.S. monetary policy on foreign economies has become an active area of research. Analysts seek to identify the channels of transmission between the policy stance of the Federal Reserve and foreign interest rates and credit extension. The usual account is that an […]
Regional Fed Manufacturing Indexes Improving It’s been a really slow newsweek so far, with no important data until tomorrow. Until then, here’s a note of interest. This morning’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey was the third regional report in a row (after Richmond and Dallas in the last week of January) to show a strong rebound […]
Who “Got” Iraqi Oil? Not the US. Dick Cheney collaborated with US major oil companies in a plot to at least take over operating the oil production in Iraq, OPEC’s second largest producer and exporter, if not get to own the oil itself outright (which has not happened as oil in the ground was and […]
Production, transportation, and sales show a stalled economy Below is a graph I put together in a discussion of transportation that I’ll probably post next week at Seeking Alpha. The idea behind the graph is that (1) everything that is produced needs to be transported to market; i.e., the two metrics should move essentially in […]
Housing analysis at Seeking Alpha; updated jobless claims I have a more detailed analysis of yesterday’s very positive housing permits and starts data, and what it means for the economy for the rest of this year, over at Seeking Alpha. As usual, clicking over and reading helps reward me a little bit for my efforts. This […]
The Debate within Unions over Health Care is about the Nature of Unionism Itself Casual observers of the political scene got an insight into union politics when a small storm erupted over a flyer distributed by Nevada’s Culinary Union attacking Bernie Sanders and his Medicare for All proposal. Politico has a piece surveying similar disputes in other states […]