It’s been a really slow newsweek so far, with no important data until tomorrow. Until then, here’s a note of interest.
This morning’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey was the third regional report in a row (after Richmond and Dallas in the last week of January) to show a strong rebound in strength, as the new orders index jumped 15.5 to 22.1 (values over zero indicate improvement).
Here’s what the average of the five regions look like as of now (this is taken straight from my weekly update):
Regional Fed New Orders Indexes
(*indicates report this week)
- *Empire State up +15.5 to +22.1
- Philly up +7.1 to +18.2
- Richmond up +26 to +13
- Kansas City up +13 to -5
- Dallas up +16.0 to +17.6
- Month-over-month rolling average: up +3 to +13
The regional average had been only +3 only 3 weeks ago. A reading of +13 shows pretty strong growth on the order of what we saw in 2018.
Between coronavirus fears and always the possibility that Tariff Man launches new trade wars, I’m not making any promises about where this goes from here. But for now, a clear rebound in manufacturing.
Pretty clear they are frauds. They are creating products nobody wants. Yet they created them. Explains the low jobless claims. Now comes a major reversal. The Trade war was never that big. Maybe these Fed reports need abolished???
fwiw, ex-export out of the data, you get almost a 10 year low in domestic production. They ramped up production before they had the sale.