December 2019 real personal income and spending Real personal income and spending are both coincident indicators. They don’t tell us where the economy is going, but they do give us a snapshot of how ordinary Americans are doing. In December, real income declined by less than -0.1%. Real spending rose by less than +0.1%: Figure […]
by New Deal democrat My “official” first half forecast for 2020 My short term 6 month forecast has been posted at Seeking Alpha. As usual, clicking over and reading should be educational for you, and puts un poco dinero in my pocket.
by Joseph Joyce The U.S. Position in the World Economy The election of 2016 in the U.S. saw the popularity of campaigning against international trade, foreign investments and immigration. Under the Trump administration the U.S. has implemented policies that mark a retreat from the globalization that was engineered during the 1990s and 2000s. What role […]
From SWI, Swiss news: Switzerland’s House of Representatives has rejected an initiative by the right-wing Swiss “People’s Party” to limit immigration and cancel a deal with the European Union on the free movement of people. Albert Rösti, head of the Swiss People’s Party warns that “uncontrolled” immigration could increase the current 8.5 million Swiss population […]
Spoiler alert: maybe. The surprising success of Bernie Sanders’ 2016 presidential bid, widespread protests against Trump, and the election of a number of highly progressive candidates in the 2018 midterms all seem to suggest a progressive turning point in American politics. At the very least, the intellectual stranglehold of right-wing economic ideas on our political […]
by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for January 20 – 24 at Seeking Alpha I neglected to post this yesterday…. My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. The forecasts remain as they have been recently, but there are several developments in the long leading range. As usual, clicking over and reading brings you fully […]
On the road Today (Dan here….Jan. 23) is a traveling day, so no detailed posting. This morning’s initial jobless claims were in line with the range over the past two years. There has been virtually no change YoY. This negatives any imminent recession fears. Yesterday’s existing home sales, though touted as “the best in nearly […]
by New Deal democrat The producer vs. consumer sectors of the economy: a comparison I have a post up at Seeking Alpha, comparing current conditions on the producer side of the economy vs. the consumer side. As usual, clicking over and reading should bring you up to date on the “nowcast,” and helps put a $ […]
Why negative transportation indexes don’t support a recession call Every month for at least the past half year there is a spate of bearish economic commentary that relies upon one or both of two metrics: AAR rail carloads and/or the Cass Freight Index. I have a post up at Seeking Alpha showing why the first measure is […]
(Dan here,,,at lunch the other day a friend asked about the great prices for stocks. This post by Thomas Palley caught my attention as a well written post on the nuances between stocks and finance and the 80% who do not own many stocks and the economy of losers and winners. ) by Thomas […]