The BSing of the Red Death: and a K.I.S.S. model for the coronavirus pandemic A Reuters/Ipsos poll this past week found that only 2 in 10 Republicans, vs. 4 in 10 Democrats, say the coronavirus poses an imminent threat to the United States. In keeping with that lack of concern, fewer republicans are taking any steps to prepare, […]
February jobs report: a blowout HEADLINES: +273,000 jobs added U3 unemployment rate declined -0.1% to 3.5% U6 underemployment rate rose 0.1% to 7.0% Leading employment indicators of a slowdown or recession I am highlighting these because many leading indicators overall have strongly suggested that an employment slowdown is here. The following more leading numbers […]
“…we have seen a calculation… which shows that the fixed charges, for machinery and the general management of a mill, are as nearly as possible equal to the cost of wages in the process.” In my earlier post on the “Wild and Dangerous Scheme” I teased the “egregious accounting error” committed by the author of […]
Vehicle sales for February continue to show mixed picture Let’s take a look at February car and heavy truck sales. Putting this in perspective of economic cycles, typically, after housing turns, consumer purchases of vehicles and then other durable goods (like major appliances) turn down. Broader consumer purchases are the last to turn down before […]
US consumers . . . still consuming Aside from sitting around twiddling our thumbs waiting for partial motor vehicle sales from February to be reported later, there’s no economic news of note today. But Tuesday mornings each week we do get chain store sales from the previous week. And if you’ve been paying attention, you […]
Before the recent swoon stock market market performance under Trump had been quite favorable. The market gain since his inauguration (100) had been (144) similar to those under Clinton (141) and Obama (150). At this point Ike actually had the best return ( 170) but Ike and Truman are not included in the chart because […]
by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for February 24 – 28 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. What happened in the past week certainly fits the definition of a crash – a loss of more than 10% in just five days – in my mind anyway. Not just stocks, but […]
(Dan here…another of David Zetland’s students Johanna writes on groundwater…a reminder of what also matters during this heated political climate, and from a younger generation. The first mention of water wars at AB was 2007 I believe.) Atlanta and downstream friends Johanna writes* This post offers some insight into the problems of water management in […]
January real personal income consistent with either slowdown or incipient recession Real personal income (less government transfers) is one of the four coincident indicators the NBER looks at in determining recessions. Since January’s numbers were reported this morning, let’s take an updated look. Truth be told, real personal income is actually a short lagging indicator. […]
Housing: prices follow sales, February 2020 edition One of the consistent things I have written about the housing market for going on 10 years is that interest rates lead sales, and sales in turn lead prices. Last week with the continued increase in housing starts and permits we got further proof of the former, and […]