by New Deal democrat The impact of coronavirus on my slowdown vs. recession forecast For roughly the last half year, my forecast has been that a slowdown without a recession was the most likely scenario, *IF* the economy were left to its own devices. Well, given the horror scenarios possible with the coronavirus outbreak, the […]
by Joseph Joyce The Long Reach of U.S. Monetary Policy The spillover of U.S. monetary policy on foreign economies has become an active area of research. Analysts seek to identify the channels of transmission between the policy stance of the Federal Reserve and foreign interest rates and credit extension. The usual account is that an […]
Regional Fed Manufacturing Indexes Improving It’s been a really slow newsweek so far, with no important data until tomorrow. Until then, here’s a note of interest. This morning’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey was the third regional report in a row (after Richmond and Dallas in the last week of January) to show a strong rebound […]
Who “Got” Iraqi Oil? Not the US. Dick Cheney collaborated with US major oil companies in a plot to at least take over operating the oil production in Iraq, OPEC’s second largest producer and exporter, if not get to own the oil itself outright (which has not happened as oil in the ground was and […]
Production, transportation, and sales show a stalled economy Below is a graph I put together in a discussion of transportation that I’ll probably post next week at Seeking Alpha. The idea behind the graph is that (1) everything that is produced needs to be transported to market; i.e., the two metrics should move essentially in […]
Housing analysis at Seeking Alpha; updated jobless claims I have a more detailed analysis of yesterday’s very positive housing permits and starts data, and what it means for the economy for the rest of this year, over at Seeking Alpha. As usual, clicking over and reading helps reward me a little bit for my efforts. This […]
The Debate within Unions over Health Care is about the Nature of Unionism Itself Casual observers of the political scene got an insight into union politics when a small storm erupted over a flyer distributed by Nevada’s Culinary Union attacking Bernie Sanders and his Medicare for All proposal. Politico has a piece surveying similar disputes in other states […]
Housing continues to surge Low interest rates continue to fuel a strong upsurge in new housing construction. I’ll put up a more detailed post later, but for now simply note that housing permits, both overall and for the less volatile single family housing component, made new expansion highs, at levels not seen since 2007. Housing […]
What Is “Democratic Socialism”? Probably the best answer is whatever Bernie Sanders says it is as he is by far the most famous person ever to adopt this term as a label for his beliefs. There is a group in the US bearing that name, the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), which has been in […]
Bloomberg’s Plan for Reskilling America: The Quid without the Pro Quo The Intercept usefully preports Michael Bloomberg’s proposals for higher education, focusing on plans to upgrade workforce skills along the lines desired by employers. Here’s the selection they excerpted that covers this, worth reading carefully: There’s a lot here that would be useful to businesses located […]