Tax churn.  Or so I will suggest. There are two basic ways to improve the economic position of disadvantaged Americans using the income tax system.  The first approach, targeting, uses refundable tax credits to put more money in the hands of lower-income households.  Subsidies decrease for households with higher earnings.  The second approach is to […]

 by New Deal democrat My long leading forecast through the end of 2022 My long leading forecast that goes 12 months out is now up at Seeking Alpha. I am as nerdy as can be, and follow the same indicators over and over, no matter what their message. And their message has been changing over the […]

Oil prices hit 7 year high, natural gas hits 14 year high on largest one day price jump on record; natural gas supplies see largest draw this winter, Focus on Fracking, RJS Oil prices rose for a sixth straight week and eclipsed the 7 year high hit last week on heightened tension over Ukraine, tight […]

Total supplies of oil & products at 7 1/2 year low even after largest 4 week build of gasoline stocks in 32 years SPR inventories are at a new 19 year low; gasoline inventories are up most in any 4 week period since Jan 1990 as gasoline demand, ex worst Covid drops, are at a 10 year low; imports of gasoline are at a […]

WSJ reports Stocks rose broadly Thursday morning after the GDP report, but they retreated later in the day, with the Nasdaq falling 1.4%, the S&P 500 dropping 0.54%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average off 0.02%. Thursday’s report contained warning signs. Most of the growth owed to companies’ restocking rather than people and firms buying […]

Real personal income and spending both decline in December; no imminent worry but evidence of softening Nominal personal income rose 0.3% in December, while spending declined -0.6%. In real terms after inflation, personal income declined -0.1%, and personal consumption expenditures declined -1.0%. Nevertheless, both remain well above their pre-pandemic levels:  Here is what the same […]

by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for January 24 – 28 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. While most of the chatter this past week was about inflation and the Fed raising interest rates, commodities got hot again, with oil making another 7 year high. This is both good and […]

Real Q4 GDP completes the Boom of 2021, while long leading components warn of weaker 2022 to come Nominal GDP increased 6.9% in the 4th Quarter of 2021. After taking into account inflation, it increased 1.7% The last six economic quarters together have been the biggest economic Boom since 1983-84, as shown in the below […]

Usually, discussions of decarbonizing energy production involve solar, wind, tidal and geothermal. But nuclear power generation doesn’t generate greenhouse gas (though the large amount of concrete in conventional nuclear power plants does). Nuclear power generation has a bad name after Three Mile Island, Chernobyl and Fukushima. While there is debate about whether the Three Mile […]

With seasonality over, it is clear that Omicron is responsible for increased layoffs With seasonality behind us, it is apparent that Omicron has resulted in increased layoffs. New claims declined 30,000 last week to 260,000 – still well above its pandemic low of 188,000 set early in December. The 4 week average of new claims […]