Weekly Indicators for February 21 – 25 at Seeking Alpha
by New Deal democrat
Weekly Indicators for February 21 – 25 at Seeking Alpha
My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha.
The invasion of Ukraine by Russia has added some elevated risk to a few of the numbers, but there is nothing that indicates any economic crisis.
In general, there are accumulating signs that last year’s Boom is over; but on the other hand, no accumulating signs that a recession is anywhere near. In short, a normal, uneven expansion for now and the near future.
As usual, clicking over and reading will bring you up to the virtual moment, and bring me enough to buy a bottle of wine or two.
Concur. with the above qualitive assessment …
Quantitative Assessment below:
The nomlinear end of the 33/71 week March 2020 low x/2-2.5x fractal will end on Tuesday 1 March 2022 completing a 5/12/11 day three phase decay fractal series for the US SPX/Wilshire/NASDAQ/Russel composites; a 5/12/12 day three phase decay fractal series for the French CAC and German Dax, a 4/10/10 day three phase decay series for the Nikkei; a 7/17/18 day three phase decay fractal series for the Shanghai Composite; a 3/7/8 day decay series for the CRB, a 11/24/26 day three phase decay fractal series for the M-F trading cryptocurrencies/cryptocurrency proxies and a 4/10/10 day cacircatured three phase growth and decay series for gold. The 71 week second fractal 2x-2.5x nonlinearity with its March 2020 33 week first fractal base should be remarkable. After Tuesday 2 March 2022, the third weekly fractal will commence. (Ideally the peak would be 1.6 times the ideal base of a 71 week second fractal 1.6 x 28+ weeks or about 45-46 weeks.) US housing equity inflated wealth has been created via Federal Reserve MBS ‘incentivized ‘2.5-3 percent mortgage rates over the last 20 months. This wealth effect has been substantial and is the principle factor for residential price increases of 30% over the last two years. With the large de facto wealth effect, demand for other commodities and assets has inctresed. Recently announced western block sanctions on Russia who produces large quanties of energy commodities used for the European markets and in metal commodities used for automobile emission controls will cause significant price inflation in the CRB. This will in turn cause a reactive central bank racheting up of interest rates. Even with interest rate increases, the fractal growth model expects substantion elevations of valuations of the equity and CRB markets from the Tuesday 1 March 2022 nonlinear low.