by New Deal Democrat Industrial production: once again, the hard data fails to confirm the sof … ofertheluvofgaud This morning’s report on industrial production confirms that the economy remains on autopilot, and that’s a good thing. Overall production increased again, and the trend of rising production since spring of last year is clear: When we […]
Why Is The Fed Raising Interest Rates As Fast As It Is? I have a theory that at least some people at the Fed are supporting interest rate increases not because they are worried about incipient inflation that must be nipped in the bud in advance under a regime of inflation targeting, but because they […]
Real retail sales disappoints . . . the Doomers This morning’s report on July retail sales once again belies the claim that “hard data” and “soft data” are divergent.. Not only did July come in at a strong +0.6% (+0.5% ex-autos), but June was revised up as well. Given basically non-existent inflation, this means that […]
by Joseph Joyce Current Account Deficits and Safe Assets The International Monetary Fund has issued its External Sector Report for 2017, and among its key findings: “Global current account imbalances were broadly unchanged in 2016…” The U,S. continues to record the largest deficit, $451.7 billion, which is equal in value to 2.4% of U.S. GDP. […]
“The Changing of the Guard:” the prescient 1980 book that foretold neoliberalism About a month ago I read the synopsis of an interview in which Thomas Frank described the near evisceration of the Democratic Party. Here’s his simple version: “[T]he Democrats have, what happened is that some years ago they decided they didn’t want to […]
Lifted from Robert’s Stochastic Thoughts Jon Chait Shoots at all the Ducks in a Row — and Manages to Miss (once) I admire both Jon Chait and Glenn Greenwald. They do not admire each other. I enjoy it when they debate. Sometimes they both make fools of themselves. Jon Chait wrote a blog post “The […]
by Peter Dorman (originally published at Econospeak) “Rational” Optimism? I just finished this long, rather convoluted meditation on “rational optimism”. Must we admit the world is getting better, getting better all the time? Really, there are two types of multidimensionality that need to be considered. The first is that “better” is, if it’s anything, vector […]
The Buchanan-MacLean Controversy The book, Democracy in Chains (with an even more lurid subtitle) by Nancy MacLean, a respected (until now) historian at Duke University makes a strong argument that the late James M. Buchanan of UVa, VaTech, and George Mason was the crucial link between the ancient states right racism of John C. Calhoun […]
In which I (partially) disagree with Dean Baker about the stock market Dean Baker complained yesterday about pundits who talk about the stock market in terms of economic well-being: As someone who routinely considers both corporate profits and stock prices in terms of economic well-being, I disagree — somewhat.
On JOLTS, I continue to dissent The only two significant items of data in the second week of the month typically had been the JOLTS report and the Labor Market Conditions Index. I say, “had been” because the Fed has discontinued reporting the LMCI. Here’s their explanation: Although the LMCI was reconstructed back 50 years, […]