A note on producer prices and (possibly) cooling inflation One point I make from time to time is that, with seasonally adjusted data, YoY comparisons can miss, or at least lag, turning points. We *may* have such a situation developing with producer prices as evidenced by this morning’s report (Feb. 15). On a YoY basis, […]
The current trend in both cases and deaths in the US has me the most hopeful I have been in over 6 months. Here’s why. Nationwide, cases have declined to 150,000, only 30,000 above their level just before The Omicron wave started, and about 10,000 less than their Delta peak: The Omicron wave has been […]
There has been quite a lot of news over the past few years regarding agriculture specific to governmental assistance, from providing crop subsidies during the Trump Trade War to the Biden Administration’s attempt to tamp down inflation via meat processing capacity increases, as well as an effort to revive a few ideas tabled by previous […]
Real Wages Grew During Two Years of COVID-19 After Controlling for Workforce Composition Sean Howard, Robert Rich and Joseph Tracy February 15, 2022 I propose you just read it. They are quite convincing. The bottom line is that real wages increased last year (the top line is nominal wages and yes I like to take […]
RJS, Focus on Fracking; Global oil shortage at 440,000 barrels per day in January as OPEC’s output falls 749,000 barrels per day short; 2021’s oil shortage revised to 1.5 million barrels per day OPEC’s January Oil Market Report Thursday of the past week saw the release of OPEC’s February Oil Market Report, which includes details on […]
Bloomberg News reports an outbreak in Kentucky and Virginia after initial outbreak discovered at Indiana facility last week. Avian flu is nothing new, and as we continue to keep large quantities of poultry in ever increasing numbers in concentrated operations around the poultry processors, the occurrences are likely to become more severe and often. This […]
The return of the “Oil Choke Collar”! For the first five years after the end of the Great Recession, one of the staples of my analysis was the concept of the “oil choke collar.” By that I meant that typically recessions had occurred after there was a sudden and sharp upward spike in the cost […]
RJS, MarketWatch 666, “CPI Rose 0.6% in January on Higher Prices for Food, Clothing, Electricity, Used Vehicles, & Furniture; Annual Inflation Now at a 40 Year High” The consumer price index rose 0.6% in January, as higher prices for food, clothing, rent, electricity, used vehicles, airfares, furniture, and appliances and were only slightly offset by […]
Things Getting Very Worrisome Yes, signs regarding a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine have gotten much worse in the last few days. I am hearing from my wife that Russian media are now claiming there are lots of US troops in Ukraine. Such a claim, not even backed up by some fake video, would clearly […]
Real wages continued to stall in January, portending a consumer slowdown, but don’t reverse Let me follow up on yesterday’s post about the January CPI by talking about “real” wages. Since both average real hourly wages and consumer inflation increased in January by 0.6%, real hourly wages for non-supervisory workers were flat month over month: […]