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The Russian invasion of Ukraine

Barkley Rosser | February 13, 2022 9:35 am

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Things Getting Very Worrisome

Yes, signs regarding a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine have gotten much worse in the last few days. I am hearing from my wife that Russian media are now claiming there are lots of US troops in Ukraine. Such a claim, not even backed up by some fake video, would clearly serve as an excuse for an invasion. There are also reports out of the Russian media that Putin feels that he was not treated well in Beijing. Apparently he was shunted off to some side airport when he landed, with only the Russian ambassador there to meet him. This may help explain some reports of Xi not being impressed with his “overbearing manner,=” despite their superficially friendly joint communique. This suggests that Xi may not be able to hold him back, although maybe he can hold him back until at least the Winter Olympics are done.

As it is, the date for that is Feb. 20, which coincides with the conclusion of the exercises in Belarus. Supposedly the Russian troops there will go home after then, but that conclusion time looks like a highly likely time to invade, if indeed that is what is coming. Clearly markets are more worried, with Brent crude price passing $95 per barrel a sign, even as there are rumors of a renewed Iran nuclear deal happening.

My concern is that Putin seems to have become highly isolated to the point of becoming deludional. Reportedly he thinks like Bush before invading Iraq that he will be welcomed as a “liberator” if he invades, at least by native Russian speakers. But it is pretty clear now that would/will not be the case. People in Kharkiv have no interest in living lives like people in the separatist Donbas republics, where conditions are basically awful. Since Zelensky came to power, the economy has been generally improving with clearly reduced corruption levels, and with most Russian speakers not supporting the aggressive actions by Putin, although in Crimea they may be mostly satisfied more or less.

The invasion and annexation of Crimea was popular in Russia. But there are many indicators an invasion of Ukraine now would not be popular there. It also looks that it would not be welcomed by many of Putin’s cronies, who would suffer substantial financial losses due to economic sanctions such as shutting off access to SWIFT settlements, or even losses of real estate in UK and elsewhere. There are even elements of the military openly opposing an invasion, notably retired General Ivashov.

Besides these reports about Russian media claiming US troops in Ukraine and Putin annoyed at his reception in Beijing, there are also lots of reports that Putin’s own position in Moscow is not secure, that many around him want him out. It even may be that this possible invasion is partly going on to distract from that and to keep people in line. But a failed invasion could trigger his overthrow. The leading candidates to replace him are either hardline Defense Minister Shoigu, who has been advocating the invasion, with cynics saying he has been pushing it precisely to get Putin out so he can come in, or especially if the invasion becomes a big mess, the current Prime Minister, Mitushkin.

Anyway, I have become much more worried about the current situation. It is not unreasonable of President Biden to be urging US citizens to leave Ukraine at this time, unfortunately, although maybe reason will still prevail in the head of V.V. Putin, which is what matters here totally.

Barkley Rosser

38 Comments

Fred C. Dobbs says:

February 13, 2022 at 10:52 am

Unfortunately, in these times it’s deemed to be sufficient that when someone says something it’s simply true: ‘US troops are in Ukraine by the tens of thousands!’

There seems to be no evidence of this, except for a few trainers.

It would appear that the 150-160 US Nat’l Guard trainers in-country in Ukraine are to be withdrawn, if they haven’t already, and the 120K troops in the region (not counting Ukrainian forces or Russian irregulars, or those from Belarus) are the only ones present. US and NATO forces are in other neighboring countries in relatively small numbers it seems.

Russia seems to be looking for justification to invade & conquer Ukraine.

At best, the strategy is probably for Ukraine surrender before (more) shots are fired.
- Fred C. Dobbs says:
  
  February 13, 2022 at 10:56 am
  
  the 120K troops in the region (not counting Ukrainian forces or Russian irregulars, or those from Belarus) are Russian.
  - Fred C. Dobbs says:
    
    February 13, 2022 at 11:04 am
    
    However, if Russia does invade, under whatever pretext they deem plausible, it will put the lie to their assertions that they ‘never planned to do so’. Unless they manage to persuade the world that they had to, forced by the US to do so. Hmmm.
    - Fred C. Dobbs says:
      
      February 13, 2022 at 10:44 pm
      
      The rationale here would be that the US (& NATO) urgeded so vehemently that Russia not invade Ukraine that Russia had no choice but to defy them, so as to teach all a lesson, basically that would be ‘Hey, mind your own business!’
EMichael says:

February 13, 2022 at 1:02 pm

Unfortunately, I think Putin is delusional. Invading serves him mo purpose at all, and will ensure that Russia’s economy will go into recession due to the sanctions that will be leveled. It is truly and insane move.
- Fred C. Dobbs says:
  
  February 13, 2022 at 1:56 pm
  
  He can just keep amping up the pressure until Ukraine surrenders.
- Fred C. Dobbs says:
  
  February 13, 2022 at 10:51 pm
  
  Ukraine’s President Tries to Avert Panic as Pressure Mounts
  
  NY Times – Feb 13
  
  With Ukraine at the center of Europe’s most intense security crisis of the post-Cold War era, President Zelensky is driving home his message of optimism.
  
  … During a phone call on Sunday with President Biden, Mr. Zelensky issued an invitation for a visit, so the American president could “contribute to de-escalation” with his presence in Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital. The United States has already ordered most American diplomats to leave, making a presidential visit unlikely.
  
  “I am convinced that your arrival in Kyiv in the coming days, which are crucial for stabilizing the situation, will be a powerful signal,” Mr. Zelensky said, according to an official Ukrainian account of the conversation, adding that the Ukrainian capital was “safe and under reliable protection.”
  
  Mr. Zelensky also thanked Mr. Biden for American support, including airlifts of armaments, and said, “We hope that, among other things, it will help prevent the spread of panic.”
  
  What is perhaps Europe’s most intense security crisis since the end of the Cold War appears to be nearing a climax, with Washington warning that a Russian invasion of Ukraine could begin at any moment. But the 44-year-old Ukrainian president is clinging to the strategy he has pursued for months, using every appearance to caution against panic and overreaction, to the point of seeming nearly delusional about the grave risks his country faces. …
Fred C. Dobbs says:

February 13, 2022 at 2:25 pm

US Battles Putin by Disclosing His Next Possible Moves

NY Times – Feb 12

Declassified information is part of a campaign to complicate what officials say are Russia’s plans to invade Ukraine.

After decades of getting schooled in information warfare by President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, the United States is trying to beat the master at his own game.

In recent weeks, the Biden administration has detailed the movement of Russian special operation forces to Ukraine’s borders, exposed a Russian plan to create a video of a faked atrocity as a pretext for an invasion, outlined Moscow’s war plans, warned that an invasion would result in possibly thousands of deaths and hinted that Russian officers had doubts about Mr. Putin. ,,,
- Fred C. Dobbs says:
  
  February 13, 2022 at 2:28 pm
  
  … The hope is that disclosing Mr. Putin’s plans will disrupt them, perhaps delaying an invasion and buying more time for diplomacy, or even giving Mr. Putin a chance to reconsider the political, economic and human costs of an invasion.
  
  At the same time, Biden administration officials said they had a narrower and more realistic goal: They want to make it more difficult for Mr. Putin to justify an invasion with lies, undercutting his standing on the global stage and building support for a tougher response.
  
  Intelligence agencies, prodded by the White House, have declassified information, which in turn has been briefed to Congress, shared with reporters and discussed by Pentagon and State Department spokesmen. …
Ken Melvin says:

February 13, 2022 at 4:09 pm

Both Putin and Xi look to the past.
- Fred C. Dobbs says:
  
  February 13, 2022 at 6:04 pm
  
  China and Russia have formed an “alliance of autocracies.”
  
  NY Times – David Leonhardt – Feb 9
  
  The last time Xi Jinping left China was more than two years ago, for a diplomatic trip to Myanmar. Days later, he ordered the lockdown of Wuhan, which began China’s aggressive “zero Covid” policy. By staying home, Xi has reduced his chances of contracting the virus and has sent a message that he is playing by at least some of the same pandemic rules as other Chinese citizens.
  
  Until last week, Xi had also not met with a single other world leader since 2020. He had conducted his diplomacy by phone and videoconference. When he finally broke that streak and met in Beijing on Friday with another head of state, who was it?
  
  Vladimir Putin.
  
  Their meeting led to a joint statement, running more than 5,000 words, that announced a new closeness between China and Russia. It proclaimed a “redistribution of power in the world” and mentioned the U.S. six times, all critically. …
  - Fred C. Dobbs says:
    
    February 13, 2022 at 6:07 pm
    
    The Washington Post called the meeting “a bid to make the world safe for dictatorship.” Kevin Rudd, a former prime minister of Australia, told The Wall Street Journal, “The world should get ready for a further significant deepening of the China-Russia security and economic relationship.” …
    
    Russia’s threat to invade Ukraine has added a layer to the relationship between Moscow and Beijing. The threat reflects Putin’s view — which Xi shares — that a powerful country should be able to impose its will within its declared sphere of influence. The country should even be able to topple a weaker nearby government without the world interfering. Beside Ukraine, of course, another potential example is Taiwan.
    
    For all these common interests, China and Russia do still have major points of tension. For decades, they have competed for influence in Asia. That competition continues today, with China now in the more powerful role, and many Russians, across political ideologies, fear a future of Chinese hegemony.
    
    Even their joint statement — which stopped short of being a formal alliance — had to elide some tensions. It did not mention Ukraine by name, partly because China has economic interests that an invasion would threaten. The two countries are also competing for influence in the melting waters of the Arctic. And China is nervous about Russia’s moves to control Kazakhstan, where many people are descended from modern-day China. …
Barkley Rosser says:

February 13, 2022 at 5:13 pm

Note that at least one officer, retired Gen. Ivashov, has openly criticized a possible invasion with a petition sighed by several other senior retired officers.
- Ron (RC) Weakley (A.K.A., Darryl For A While At EV) says:
  
  February 14, 2022 at 6:54 am
  
  Barkley,
  
  “…openly criticized a possible invasion with a petition sighed (sic) by several other senior retired officers…”
  
  [Despite our best intentions Freud slips in so that the truth will out.]
Fred C. Dobb says:

February 14, 2022 at 6:22 pm

Tone of Ukraine Crisis Shifts as Russia Signals Openness to Talk More

Diplomacy is “far from exhausted,” Russia’s foreign minister said, while President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine said the prospect of his country joining NATO might be just a “dream.”

NY Times – Feb 14
- Fred C. Dobbs says:
  
  February 14, 2022 at 6:26 pm
  
  … In stage-managed, televised meetings, the Kremlin sent its strongest signals yet that it would seek further negotiations with the West rather than launch immediate military action. State television showed Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov telling President Vladimir V. Putin there was still a diplomatic path ahead. Minutes later, it showed Defense Minister Sergei K. Shoigu telling Mr. Putin that what he characterized as “large-scale drills” around Ukraine were coming to an end.
  
  “I believe that our possibilities are far from exhausted,” Mr. Lavrov said, referring to Russia’s negotiations with the West. “I would propose continuing and intensifying them.”
  
  Mr. Putin responded ambiguously: “Good.” …
  
  At a news conference, Mr. Zelensky emphasized that NATO membership was “for our security,” with the goal of joining the alliance written into the country’s constitution. But he acknowledged the difficult place the country found itself in, nearly completely encircled by Russian forces and with partners like the United States insisting they would not send troops into Ukraine to repel a Russian invasion.
  
  “How much should Ukraine go on that path?” Mr. Zelensky said of NATO membership. “Who will support us?”
  
  The prospect of Ukraine joining NATO, he posited, could be “like a dream.” …
  
  In Mr. Lavrov’s televised meeting with Mr. Putin, he highlighted the West’s diplomatic frenzy as a sign that the Kremlin’s strategy of pairing negotiations with military pressure was working. Mr. Putin laid out that strategy in an address to Russian diplomats in November: it was good that “tensions” were high with the West, the president told them, and it was “important for them to remain in this state for as long as possible.”
  
  And he directed his diplomats to demand “security guarantees” from the West, such as a legally binding pledge that Ukraine will never join the NATO alliance.
  
  “Our initiative,” Mr. Lavrov told Mr. Putin, “shook up our Western colleagues and became the reason they have no longer been able to ignore many of our previous appeals.” …
  
  The ambiguity over Russia’s intentions is forcing Ukraine and its Western partners to make hard decisions about what concessions to make to prevent an invasion — and causing discord over how seriously to take the threat.
  
  The secretary of Ukraine’s security council, Oleksiy Danilov, reiterated the government’s position on Monday that an invasion is less likely than how the United States has portrayed it. Such comments are intended to prevent panic among Ukrainians but also might be aimed at easing negotiations with Russia, analysts have said.
  
  “We recognize the risks that exist on the territory of our country,” Mr. Danilov said. “But the situation is under complete control. Moreover, we, as of today, do not see that a full-scale invasion by the Russian Federation could happen on the 16th or 17th of this month.”
  
  United States officials last week suggested Russian military action could begin within days. “We don’t see it,” Mr. Danilov said. …
  - Fred C. Dobbs says:
    
    February 14, 2022 at 6:31 pm
    
    …
    
    In Monday’s televised meetings, Mr. Putin did not state his own position, even after his defense minister told him that Russian military exercises were winding down. He did not specify which exercises were ending, but Russia has used the pretext of exercises to move troops and warships from across the country to within striking distance of Ukraine.
    
    “Some of the drills are already ending and some will end soon,” Mr. Shoigu said.
    
    “We’ll speak in more detail now,” Mr. Putin told him, before the Kremlin’s video feed ended.
    
    The ambiguity over Russia’s intentions is forcing Ukraine and its Western partners to make hard decisions about what concessions to make to prevent an invasion — and causing discord over how seriously to take the threat. …
Justin Cidertrades says:

February 15, 2022 at 12:26 am

TVH, the Vladimir himself has reached his level of incompetence. He no longer fully understands his duties. His confusion has driven him mad. His country remains as a decapitated snake that writhes aimlessly until it dies.
Justin Cidertrades says:

February 15, 2022 at 12:39 am

СВД, сам Владимир достиг своего уровня некомпетентности. Он уже не полностью понимает свои обязанности. Его замешательство свело его с ума. Его страна остается обезглавленной змеей, которая бесцельно корчится, пока не умрет.
Barkley Rosser says:

February 15, 2022 at 3:00 am

Russian media has been saying troops will be withdrawn after exercises are done. I am shifting to seeing that Putin is looking at a pullback. A key is that US advisers have been withdrawn, which undoes the previous Russian media slams about US troops being in Ukraine. I think they are looking for a deal now to seal it off, maybe with visit of German Chancellor Scholze to seal the deal.
- Fred C. Dobbs says:
  
  February 15, 2022 at 7:59 am
  
  Russia says some troops are returning to their bases, but other large-scale military drills continue
  
  NY Times – Feb 15
  
  Russia’s Defense Ministry said on Tuesday that some troops deployed from military districts bordering Ukraine were being loaded onto trains and trucks and sent back to their garrisons, a tentative sign that Russia could be stepping away from the threat of an invasion.
  
  The Defense Ministry’s announcement was the strongest signal yet that Russia might be trying to de-escalate the military standoff near the Ukrainian border, but it was far from clear that the threat of war had passed. It couldn’t be determined how many troops were being pulled back, and a Defense Ministry spokesman, Igor Konashenkov, said that some military exercises that have raised fears of an attack against Ukraine — including in Belarus and in the Black Sea — were continuing.
  
  The announcement came a day after Russia’s foreign minister, Sergey V. Lavrov, said that diplomatic efforts to resolve the crisis were “far from exhausted,” suggesting that the Kremlin would continue negotiations with the West rather than launch immediate military action. In a sign that Moscow was seeking to add to its leverage, lawmakers in Russia’s Kremlin-backed lower house of Parliament on Tuesday asked President Vladimir V. Putin to recognize breakaway states in eastern Ukraine as independent, a move that would further inflame tensions between the two. …
  - Fred C. Dobbs says:
    
    February 15, 2022 at 8:02 am
    
    Russian lawmakers ask for recognition of separatist territories, adding to leverage over Ukraine
    
    NY Times – Feb 15
    
    In a sign that Russia was prepared to keep the pressure on Ukraine despite reportedly pulling back some troops from border areas, its Kremlin-controlled lower house of Parliament, the State Duma, passed a resolution on Tuesday requesting that Mr. Putin recognize the Russian-backed separatist territories in Ukraine’s east as independent states.
    
    Such a move would represent Russia’s abandonment of the 2015 peace plan for those territories, and could raise the risk of warfare between Russia and Ukraine. The separatists claim all of Ukraine’s Donetsk and Luhansk regions as their territory, but control only about one-third of those lands.
    
    Vyacheslav Volodin, the speaker of the Duma, said the resolution would be signed and transmitted to Mr. Putin “without delay.” …
- Fred C. Dobbs says:
  
  February 15, 2022 at 8:07 am
  
  Germany’s chancellor meets with Putin as the tone of the crisis shifts
  
  ‘Peace in our time’ as the German chancellor meets with Putin?
  
  … Moscow’s continued talks with the West were a sign that the Kremlin was holding out the possibility that it could avoid military action and still achieve key objectives. The prospect for such a scenario was bolstered in Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital, where President Volodymyr Zelensky left open the possibility of dropping his country’s ambition to join the NATO alliance — a move that would help fulfill one of Mr. Putin’s key demands.
  
  Mr. Scholz’s visit follows similar swings in recent weeks by President Emmanuel Macron of France and a series of foreign ministers, all trying to head off an armed clash as Mr. Putin has amassed ground and naval forces on three sides of Ukraine. …
Fred C. Dobbs says:

February 16, 2022 at 7:20 am

Ukraine displays resolve as the West assesses Russia’s claims of more troop withdrawals

NY Times – Feb 16

As President Biden and President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia continue to engage in a perilous pas de deux over the fate of Ukraine, the nation at the heart of the crisis roiling Europe marked a new national holiday on Wednesday: Unity Day.

President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine announced the holiday — an effort to bolster public resolve “in the face of growing hybrid threats, information and propaganda, moral and psychological pressure” — in response to U.S. intelligence assessments over the weekend that suggested that a Russian invasion could begin before dawn on Wednesday.

But after Mr. Putin’s announcement Tuesday that Russia would “partially pull back troops” deployed near Ukraine and seek a “diplomatic path,” there was tenuous hope in Ukraine and across the region for a peaceful resolution to the crisis.

The Russian Defense Ministry continued to announce further withdrawals of troops from near Ukraine on Wednesday, but Western leaders have responded warily, noting that Moscow in the past has moved troops around while leaving heavy weaponry in place. …
- Fred C. Dobbs says:
  
  February 16, 2022 at 7:22 am
  
  … (President Biden) emphasized that the United States would continue to pursue “a diplomatic resolution,” building on two days of signs from both Washington and Moscow that the focus was shifting, at least for the moment, from military posturing to diplomatic wrangling.
  
  At the center of those discussions is the suggestion that Ukraine might drop its ambition to join the NATO alliance — a move that would help fulfill one of Mr. Putin’s key demands. It is a politically charged topic in Ukraine but Mr. Zelensky has acknowledged it is being discussed.
  
  “It seems to me that no one is hiding it anymore,” he said this week.
  
  Germany’s chancellor, Olaf Scholz, was even more direct when he said after meeting with Mr. Putin in Moscow that one way of defusing the standoff would be to acknowledge that Ukraine’s accession to NATO is unlikely to happen.
  
  “Everyone must step back a bit here and make it clear to themselves that we just can’t have a possible military conflict over a question that is not on the agenda,” Mr. Scholz told German reporters in Moscow after leaving the Kremlin. …
Fred C. Dobbs says:

February 16, 2022 at 5:29 pm

To Understand Putin’s Aim in Ukraine, Look at This U.S. Base in Poland

NY Times – Feb 16

On the Edge of a Polish Forest, Where Some of Putin’s Darkest Fears Lurk

A U.S. missile facility in Poland is at the heart of an issue animating the Kremlin’s calculations over whether to go to war against Ukraine.

… The Polish base, the heart of which is a system known as Aegis Ashore, contains sophisticated radars capable of tracking hostile missiles and guiding interceptor rockets to knock them out of the sky. It is also equipped with missile launchers known as MK 41s, which the Russians worry can be easily repurposed to fire offensive missiles like the Tomahawk. …

Missile defense has long been viewed by Russia as a dangerous American attempt to degrade the main guarantor of its great power status — a vast nuclear arsenal. The possibility that the United States could shoot down Russian ballistic missiles undermines the deterrent doctrine of mutually assured destruction, which posits that neither of the two biggest nuclear powers would ever risk a nuclear war because it would mean both get annihilated. …

Russia views the Polish missile defense facility, previously stalled by construction and other problems, as a more serious menace.

The weapons system was installed last summer in the facility, which is scheduled to start working sometime this year, Rear Admiral Tom Druggan, the program’s director, said in November. “It is specifically not focused on threats out of Russia, despite what they say,” he said. …

Responding to Russian complaints, NATO declared last month that interceptor missiles deployed at Aegis Ashore sites “cannot undermine Russian strategic deterrence capabilities” and “cannot be used for offensive purposes.” It added that the interceptors contained no explosives and could not hit ground targets, only airborne objects.

“In addition, the site lacks the software, the hardware and infrastructure needed to launch offensive missiles,” NATO said. …
Fred C. Dobbs says:

February 16, 2022 at 5:55 pm

US and NATO say they have seen no sign of a Russian pullback near Ukraine

NY Times – Feb 16

A day after Russia seemed to swerve away from a military confrontation with Ukraine, Western leaders said Wednesday that they were still looking for proof that President Vladimir V. Putin was open to a diplomatic resolution and was pulling back troops from Ukraine’s borders.

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken said the United States had seen no evidence of a significant Russian military withdrawal, while the Ukrainian government continued to search for a peaceful way to avert an invasion by Moscow. A senior official said President Volodymyr Zelensky was considering holding a referendum that could keep his country from joining NATO, fulfilling one of Mr. Putin’s key demands. …
rjs says:

February 17, 2022 at 12:12 am

it’s past midnight, and there’s still no invasion…

Russia mocks western media outlets over speculations of Ukraine invasion…

Maria Zakharova, the Russian foreign ministry diplomat has lashed out at certain Western media publications for their dubious claims of Russia’s supposed invasion of Ukraine. Zakharova, who is the Director of the Information and Press Department at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia, asked the western media to announce the schedule of Russian ‘invasions’ for the coming year so that Russian diplomats can plan their vacations accordingly.error.

Maria Zakharova wrote on her telegram channel, “A request to US and British disinformation media: Bloomberg, The New York Times, The Sun, etc. – announce the schedule of our ‘invasions’ for the coming year, I would like to plan a vacation,” This came after certain British news outlets like The Sun and The Mirror published that the ‘invasion of Ukraine’ was to happen at 3:00 AM on February 16 citing American intelligence data. Bloomberg had earlier reported on February 04, with a headline “Russia invades Ukraine” for which it had to apologise with a statement on publishing error.
- rjs says:
  
  February 17, 2022 at 12:14 am
  
  here’s the headline link for that: https://www.opindia.com/2022/02/russia-mocks-western-media-outlets-over-speculations-of-ukraine-invasion/
- Fred C. Dobbs says:
  
  February 17, 2022 at 9:24 am
  
  Hmmm. It has been said that if ‘sources in the west reveal’ the specifics of the Russian plans, then it seems they have to change them. Obviously a pretty good strategy if they choose to keep delaying when the Big Push is supposed to happen.
Fred C. Dobbs says:

February 17, 2022 at 9:47 am

A senior US official said Moscow had added more than 7,000 troops at Ukraine’s border

NY Times – Feb 16

Ukraine Tensions Spike as West Accuses Russia of Lying About Troop Withdrawal

As Russia stoked hopes of a diplomatic solution and claimed to be pulling back forces from the Ukrainian border, U.S. and NATO officials accused Moscow of building up troops instead.

… After days marked by flickers of hope that the conflict might be resolved peacefully, a senior American official, who refused to be quoted by name, told reporters that far from winding down its deployment, Moscow had added more than 7,000 combatants. Western allies expressed similar doubts about the Russian claims.

The American official directly accused Russia of lying, saying there was fresh evidence it was mobilizing for war.

British military officials said Wednesday they had spotted Russian armored vehicles, helicopters and a field hospital moving toward Ukraine’s border. …
Fred C. Dobbs says:

February 17, 2022 at 9:55 am

Russia says its troops are pulling back

NY Times – Feb 17

… The Russian Defense Ministry said on Thursday that troops had redeployed hundreds of miles away from the Ukrainian border areas after conducting military exercises.

The ministry’s spokesman, Maj. Gen. Igor Konashenkov, said that logistics units of the western military district had traveled more than 400 miles from the Kursk region, bordering Ukraine, and returned to their base in the town of Dzerzhinsk in central Russia.

Several other military groups traveled more than 900 miles by railway with their equipment and were redeployed to Chechnya and Dagestan, he said. The troops currently engaged in military exercises in Belarus, to Ukraine’s north, will also return to their home bases once the drills are over, General Konashenkov said in a statement.

The Kremlin spokesman, Dmitri S. Peskov, insisted the withdrawal was continuing. “This process takes time,” he said. “They cannot just get lifted in the air and fly away.” …
- Fred C. Dobbs says:
  
  February 17, 2022 at 5:28 pm
  
  MOSCOW, January 14. /TASS/. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has explained what Russia means by saying that it may take military-technical measures in case of a real security threat.
  
  “Military-technical measures imply the deployment of military hardware, it is obvious. And when we make decisions about these or those steps, we always know what we mean and what we are getting prepared for,” he told a news conference on the results of the Russian foreign ministry’s activities in 2021 on Friday.
  
  The minister recalled that drills have recently been conducted in Russia’s western regions. “Now, a snap check has kicked off at our country’s eastern borders. These are our domestic affairs, our decisions. And, naturally, when hardware and manpower are pulled to our borders, and, notably, these are not the forces of those countries where it is taking place, but the Americans are deploying tens of thousands of their troops and the Britons are deploying hundreds, thousands of items of military hardware, we want to know what these vehicles are going to do in the Baltic countries, in Poland, in other countries, which can resolve problems on Russia’s territory by means of certain types of weapons,” Lavrov stressed.
  
  The Russian top diplomat warned against trying to find “any hidden meaning” in this respect. “We have always been only responding to threats to Russia’s security,” he added. …
  
  “military-technical measures”
Fred C. Dobbs says:

February 17, 2022 at 11:08 am

Russia said it was not planning to invade Ukraine but warned it would take “military-technical” measures if the United States did not meet its demands to roll back the NATO presence in Eastern Europe, publishing a lengthy document it sent to Washington on Thursday that outlined Russia’s hard-line position seeking to renegotiate the security architecture of Eastern Europe.

“No ‘Russian invasion of Ukraine’, which the United States and its allies have officially been announcing since last fall, is happening, nor is one being planned,” the letter said.

But Russia’s response also repeated warnings made by President Vladimir V. Putin in December that if the United States does not accede to its demands, Russia will take military measures of its own to assure its security.

“In the absence of the readiness of the American side to agree on firm, legally binding guarantees of our security from the United States and its allies, Russia will be forced to respond, including through the implementation of measures of a military-technical character,” the letter said. …

Russia says it won’t invade Ukraine, but warns that US must meet its security demands

NY Times – Feb 17
- Fred C. Dobbs says:
  
  February 17, 2022 at 11:10 am
  
  Russia says its troops are pulling back. Biden says the threat of an invasion is still ‘very high.’
  
  The United States and Russia offered two starkly different versions of the reality on the ground surrounding Ukraine on Thursday, with the Kremlin offering its most detailed accounting so far of what it has described as a partial troop withdrawal, while America and its NATO allies said the Russian threat continued to grow.
  
  President Biden said that the possibility of a Russian invasion of Ukraine remained “very high,” and that he expected President Vladimir V. Putin to carry it out within several days.
  
  “Every indication we have is they’re prepared to go into Ukraine,” he said.
  
  But in brief remarks on Thursday morning outside the White House, Mr. Biden said he still believed a diplomatic resolution was possible, adding that “there is a path. There is a way through this.” …
Fred C. Dobbs says:

February 17, 2022 at 7:42 pm

A spike in shelling heightens fears that Russia may claim a pretext to invade

A dramatic spike in shelling up and down the front line between Ukraine and Russian-backed separatists on Thursday raised fears that a conflict that until now has consisted almost entirely of saber-rattling may now offer Moscow the kind of pretext the United States says it is looking for to invade. …
- Fred C. Dobbs says:
  
  February 17, 2022 at 7:44 pm
  
  Perhaps most worrisome, the separatists claimed that they had come under fire from the Ukrainians — precisely the sort of incident Western officials have warned Russia might try to use to justify military action. Moscow has long invoked what it says is its obligation to protect ethnic Russians in eastern Ukraine.
  
  The uptick in hostilities came as the United States and Russia traded conflicting claims about whether Russian forces were really pulling back from the Ukrainian border, as Moscow has insisted.
  
  On Thursday, artillery shells struck a town on the Ukrainian government-controlled side of a war with Russian-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine, damaging a kindergarten and wounding three adult civilians, the Ukrainian military said.
  
  And Leonid Pasechnik, head of the Russian separatists’ self-proclaimed Luhansk People’s Republic, accused the Ukrainian Armed Forces for “massive strikes on civilians.” That claim could not be independently verified.
  
  Earlier in the day, the United States and Russia continued to clash over the fate of Ukraine, with President Biden warning that the threat of a Russian attack remained “very high,” even as the Kremlin insisted that it was withdrawing troops from border areas and said in writing it was not planning an invasion.
  
  But Russia repeated its threat of unspecified “military-technical measures” if the United States did not accede to its demands for sweeping changes to security arrangements in Eastern Europe.
  
  The Kremlin continued to keep the United States and its Western allies off-balance, sounding positive notes about diplomacy in a written response to U.S. security proposals and offering the most detailed accounting so far of what Mr. Putin said on Tuesday was a “partial” pullback of the 150,000 troops that the United States estimates it has massed around Ukraine.
  
  American U.S. officials said they were “watching closely” the shelling out of concern that Russia could use it as a pretext to invade as relations deteriorated. …
- run75441 says:
  
  February 18, 2022 at 12:38 am
  
  Fred
  Justin Cider . . . has been hacked. Do not answer him