by New Deal democrat Weekly indicators for August 24 – 28 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. The economy as a whole is being driven by lower interest rates, unprecedented Fed supply of new money, stock market gains, and – through July – the Congressional emergency stimulus and unemployment benefits. […]
Jobless claims slowly continue to get “less worse,” while longer term deadweight loss builds The good news in this morning’s jobless claims report is that the trend of “less worse” news continues. The bad news is that the improvement has slowed to a snail’s pace, at levels worse than the worst levels of the Great […]
More evidence that housing has roared back This morning we got the final important July housing reports: new home sales and house prices. New single home sales are very volatile and heavily revised, so it is always wise to take the initial report with a grain of salt. On the other hand, it is the […]
More on the bifurcation between the booming stock market and the bust of an economy I wrote that new stock market highs in the face of the worst US economic downturn since the Great Depression were primarily a function of a few stocks that are particularly tied to the global economy rather than tethered to […]
by Joseph Joyce FDI in a Risky World The pandemic has shown that global supply chains are vulnerable to shocks. Output contracted as factories were closed in China and the impact was transmitted to firms further along the chains and the distributors of the final goods. Foreign direct investment had already slowed in the aftermath […]
Whining About Lack Of Academic Leadership At my so-called university named for the fourth president, the slave-owning “Father of the Constitution.” No, I am not going to talk about the racism issue, which there is some effort to deal with on campus, notably in renaming three buildings named for Confederate figures, with our Provost originally […]
Housing roars back As I wrote yesterday, the background longer term fundamental factors for the economy, most importantly all-time low interest rates, are very positive. In particular I wrote, this “has already made an impact on the housing market…Lower mortgage rates cause more people to buy houses. Housing permits have already made back about half of […]
Initial claims mixed, while continuing claims continue “less awful” pandemic recovery trend While this morning’s initial jobless claims increased from last week, they were better than any other readings since the pandemic started. Continuing claims had their “least worst” week yet. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, new jobless claims rose by 52,776 to 891,510, […]
Why, in the face of the worst US economy since the Great Depression, is the stock market near record highs? As I type this, the S&P 500 is close to setting an all-time record. Last week it came within 0.2% of doing so: All of this in the face of the worst quarterly decline in […]
How will the COVID-19 pandemic and the protests over the police murder of George Floyd and other black people affect the political mood in the United States? The libertarian-leaning economist Tyler Cowen suggested in March that the COVID-19 pandemic would mark the “death of the progressive left.” It would erode support for key progressive goals, […]